{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04b1d29f-0fd0-4498-94a7-3a027e4c5dd1", "symbol": "HE", "name": "Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.959, "architecture_energy": 64.847, "architecture_maturity": 19.337, "architecture_confidence": 94.94, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.89, "rotation_up": 18.78, "upward_expansion": 12.9, "deceleration": 40.75, "rotation_down": 59.33, "downward_expansion": 83.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.976667, 13.193455, 13.545571, 13.940968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.4, "trend_reference": 14.447333, "distance_from_trend": -0.14171, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.039103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029977, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.24999, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.274005, "excess_performance": -0.39963, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.14171, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030088, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029977, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036447, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1725, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215432, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.274005, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.653449, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9731340, "relative_activity": 1.148923, "balance": 0.653449, "dry_up": 0.94088, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059411, "annualized_volatility": 0.25158, "from_high_reference": -0.286331, "from_low_reference": 0.151346 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.447333, "fair_value_reference": 12.039103, "structural_low": 12.335, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.008193, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.013571, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.848997, "worst_return": -0.600745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.013941, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.026258, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.121285, "worst_return": -0.605506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.053043, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.15044, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.089964, "worst_return": -0.601495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046575, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112989, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.178904, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085246, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.15978, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", 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9536088.2, "trend": 14.470667, "fair_value": 12.464689, "relative_strength": -6.641299, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.546818, "energy": 30.090026, "activity_lines": [ 13.505333, 13.460182, 13.895667, 14.243785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.5, "volume": 7085638, "typical_volume": 9222077.9, "trend": 14.516667, "fair_value": 12.309301, "relative_strength": -5.839537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.063608, "energy": 28.26871, "activity_lines": [ 13.522667, 13.471818, 13.825, 14.181161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.92, "volume": 6411472, "typical_volume": 8932155.05, "trend": 14.526333, "fair_value": 12.161273, "relative_strength": -10.848438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.901112, "energy": 41.406788, "activity_lines": [ 13.314667, 13.373091, 13.705857, 14.078151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.4, "volume": 9731340, "typical_volume": 8469966.75, "trend": 14.447333, "fair_value": 12.039103, "relative_strength": -17.24999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.958767, "energy": 64.847152, "activity_lines": [ 12.976667, 13.193455, 13.545571, 13.940968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }