{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04b56585-8702-4294-9ba7-39dfa300f284", "symbol": "MTG", "name": "MGIC Investment Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.847, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.935, "architecture_energy": 88.206, "architecture_maturity": 14.537, "architecture_confidence": 70.495, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.64, "rotation_up": 85.29, "upward_expansion": 98.29, "deceleration": 39.03, "rotation_down": 8.34, "downward_expansion": 20.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.796871, 28.902756, 27.829865, 27.395687 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 30.48, "trend_reference": 26.932546, "distance_from_trend": 0.131716, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.466793, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.298857, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.647096, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.128687, "excess_performance": 0.003062, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.131716, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004708, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.298857, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106129, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006471, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111603, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.128687, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.659242, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8734465, "relative_activity": 0.958735, "balance": 3.659242, "dry_up": 1.016556, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041336, "annualized_volatility": 0.206581, "from_high_reference": -0.038903, "from_low_reference": 0.234508 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.932546, "fair_value_reference": 23.466793, "structural_low": 24.69, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.016634, "positive_rate": 0.645161, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": 0.005964, "regime_survival": 0.709677, "best_return": 0.097855, "worst_return": -0.11816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.032835, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.013577, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.214462, "worst_return": -0.062894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.075691, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.041106, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.254339, "worst_return": -0.078304, "sufficient": true }, { 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34.470117, "energy": 38.16056, "activity_lines": [ 27.577889, 26.863466, 26.681332, 26.636754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.307129, "volume": 10461997, "typical_volume": 9281253.25, "trend": 26.836784, "fair_value": 23.207547, "relative_strength": -0.842342, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.174612, "energy": 65.845595, "activity_lines": [ 28.295701, 27.371154, 26.945393, 26.796149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.486135, "volume": 7987325, "typical_volume": 9203197.2, "trend": 26.837751, "fair_value": 23.295491, "relative_strength": 0.345785, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.970856, "energy": 80.033918, "activity_lines": [ 28.84004, 27.864895, 27.212564, 26.967075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.873979, "volume": 9861144, "typical_volume": 9195337.95, "trend": 26.872741, "fair_value": 23.379271, "relative_strength": 0.651138, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.680405, "energy": 84.867282, "activity_lines": [ 29.285251, 28.363951, 27.501835, 27.16296 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.48, "volume": 8734465, "typical_volume": 9110404.15, "trend": 26.932546, "fair_value": 23.466793, "relative_strength": -0.647096, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.934671, "energy": 88.205655, "activity_lines": [ 29.796871, 28.902756, 27.829865, 27.395687 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }