{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04bae965-43f9-4a5e-9213-b284c120901b", "symbol": "603238", "name": "HangZhou Nbond Nonwovens Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.173, "architecture_energy": 57.344, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.07, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 28.21, "upward_expansion": 10.57, "deceleration": 60.85, "rotation_down": 51.71, "downward_expansion": 83.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.497333, 11.579818, 12.504343, 13.474388 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.9, "trend_reference": 14.877946, "distance_from_trend": -0.200158, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.497562, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.118359, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.926388, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.374185, "excess_performance": -0.330981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.200158, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107196, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.118359, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291721, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269264, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094018, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.374185, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.421893, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14036913, "relative_activity": 1.170484, "balance": 0.421893, "dry_up": 1.291305, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085747, "annualized_volatility": 0.325388, "from_high_reference": -0.484233, "from_low_reference": 0.129032 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.877946, "fair_value_reference": 13.497562, "structural_low": 10.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.017281, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.023114, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.151374, "worst_return": -0.143119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.080442, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.005651, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.72619, "worst_return": -0.185546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.042928, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.010732, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.3717, "worst_return": -0.289793, "sufficient": true }, 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"activity_lines": [ 11.554, 12.02161, 13.203161, 14.216453 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.75, "volume": 18702261, "typical_volume": 11539927.05, "trend": 15.227066, "fair_value": 13.498913, "relative_strength": -32.926374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.257594, "energy": 70.170648, "activity_lines": [ 11.262, 11.685594, 12.877672, 13.913262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.58, "volume": 14213787, "typical_volume": 11858046.7, "trend": 15.055483, "fair_value": 13.497541, "relative_strength": -27.494903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.403138, "energy": 64.171004, "activity_lines": [ 11.335333, 11.580727, 12.662583, 13.677968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.9, "volume": 14036913, "typical_volume": 11992399.1, "trend": 14.877946, "fair_value": 13.497562, "relative_strength": -26.926388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.17297, "energy": 57.344372, "activity_lines": [ 11.497333, 11.579818, 12.504343, 13.474388 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }