{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04bcbcf5-f8aa-4784-84d7-6354d56388b7", "symbol": "OSE", "name": "OSE Immunotherapeutics SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.928, "architecture_energy": 42.509, "architecture_maturity": 16.884, "architecture_confidence": 90.786, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.69, "rotation_up": 14.79, "upward_expansion": 6.8, "deceleration": 43.92, "rotation_down": 57.72, "downward_expansion": 80.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.259733, 3.336727, 3.609143, 3.676069 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.33, "trend_reference": 3.8544, "distance_from_trend": -0.136052, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.536865, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.398577, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.240332, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.227737, "excess_performance": -0.281048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136052, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131305, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.398577, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100679, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.332403, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077409, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.227737, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.975613, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 656073, "relative_activity": 0.707729, "balance": 0.975613, "dry_up": 0.546535, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.198914, "annualized_volatility": 0.845475, "from_high_reference": -0.567532, "from_low_reference": 0.159471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.8544, "fair_value_reference": 5.536865, "structural_low": 2.872, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.02998, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.032722, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.544484, "worst_return": -0.317132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.064711, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.075194, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.657509, "worst_return": -0.376752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.069005, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.141295, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.347985, "worst_return": -0.549876, "sufficient": true 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{ "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154762, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.100287, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094884, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06962, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068416, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.212948, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.31845, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171722, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053797, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.73, "volume": 62369, "typical_volume": 193826.0, "trend": 4.328867, "fair_value": 7.727154, "relative_strength": -50.967394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"volume": 424625, "typical_volume": 915757.9, "trend": 3.977733, "fair_value": 5.531, "relative_strength": -35.888495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.897482, "energy": 38.150864, "activity_lines": [ 3.284533, 3.460364, 3.678886, 3.7604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.25, "volume": 633401, "typical_volume": 915977.4, "trend": 3.9094, "fair_value": 5.533404, "relative_strength": -34.158408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.204403, "energy": 46.355091, "activity_lines": [ 3.262267, 3.372909, 3.639181, 3.713449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.33, "volume": 656073, "typical_volume": 927011.5, "trend": 3.8544, "fair_value": 5.536865, "relative_strength": -33.240332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.927772, "energy": 42.508849, "activity_lines": [ 3.259733, 3.336727, 3.609143, 3.676069 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }