{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04c3ebef-5c8b-4af3-a40d-7080a65d1a3e", "symbol": "603081", "name": "Zhejiang Dafeng Industry Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.415, "architecture_energy": 54.006, "architecture_maturity": 82.286, "architecture_confidence": 88.72, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 28.02, "upward_expansion": 9.43, "deceleration": 60.92, "rotation_down": 50.78, "downward_expansion": 82.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.912, 8.929274, 9.729499, 10.444695 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.66, "trend_reference": 11.475062, "distance_from_trend": -0.158174, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.592895, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.166731, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.266249, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.332873, "excess_performance": -0.289669, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158174, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105339, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.166731, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202662, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087376, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.332873, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.176619, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32871050, "relative_activity": 1.59036, "balance": 1.176619, "dry_up": 1.204075, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091819, "annualized_volatility": 0.402656, "from_high_reference": -0.35037, "from_low_reference": 0.192593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.475062, "fair_value_reference": 11.592895, "structural_low": 8.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.009717, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.023052, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.214987, "worst_return": -0.157989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014243, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.072528, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.284644, "worst_return": -0.289216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.106084, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.09546, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.229652, "worst_return": -0.241379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005753, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170448, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066236, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083782, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122249, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-20", 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-72.082935, "energy": 68.074401, "activity_lines": [ 8.835886, 9.270839, 10.282382, 11.017976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.12, "volume": 19806900, "typical_volume": 20101995.4, "trend": 11.789062, "fair_value": 11.688303, "relative_strength": -31.702727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.935476, "energy": 70.583553, "activity_lines": [ 8.572, 8.956274, 10.010564, 10.769198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.72, "volume": 23377203, "typical_volume": 20066776.5, "trend": 11.620728, "fair_value": 11.635249, "relative_strength": -26.472578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.796912, "energy": 64.993215, "activity_lines": [ 8.588, 8.835986, 9.816555, 10.571194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.66, "volume": 32871050, "typical_volume": 20668936.8, "trend": 11.475062, "fair_value": 11.592895, "relative_strength": -20.266249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.414702, "energy": 54.005597, "activity_lines": [ 8.912, 8.929274, 9.729499, 10.444695 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }