{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04ccc471-ff9e-4102-813a-7946c88ef7b0", "symbol": "TGAF", "name": "Tralucent Global Alt(long/Short) Equity Fund E ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.886, "architecture_energy": 68.307, "architecture_maturity": 42.07, "architecture_confidence": 78.156, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.91, "rotation_up": 66.26, "upward_expansion": 86.97, "deceleration": 62.06, "rotation_down": 23.21, "downward_expansion": 11.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.728, 28.432182, 27.765857, 27.007333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 29.559999, "trend_reference": 26.177333, "distance_from_trend": 0.129221, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.522887, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.256648, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.404347, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.200162, "excess_performance": 0.079741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.129221, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024126, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.256648, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094389, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004043, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061911, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.200162, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.884058, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1700, "relative_activity": 0.524691, "balance": 0.884058, "dry_up": 1.304012, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028078, "annualized_volatility": 0.170014, "from_high_reference": -0.025387, "from_low_reference": 0.281318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.177333, "fair_value_reference": 23.522887, "structural_low": 23.07, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.006466, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.028044, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.018497, "worst_return": -0.069161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.025032, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.109116, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.027942, "worst_return": -0.078006, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.030697, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.200456, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.030697, "worst_return": -0.030697, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.163321, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.147302, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.163321, "worst_return": 0.163321, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056204, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013387, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002755, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014763, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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"typical_volume": 3155.0, "trend": 25.886667, "fair_value": 23.376014, "relative_strength": -0.497614, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.681675, "energy": 88.005843, "activity_lines": [ 28.144667, 27.791273, 26.913048, 26.334753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.41, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 2990.0, "trend": 25.960333, "fair_value": 23.41223, "relative_strength": -1.250227, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.847293, "energy": 81.321628, "activity_lines": [ 28.307333, 27.959636, 27.137714, 26.497548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.99, "volume": 10200, "typical_volume": 3240.0, "trend": 26.014, "fair_value": 23.444929, "relative_strength": -2.7191, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.646192, "energy": 68.667569, "activity_lines": [ 28.232667, 28.022909, 27.304191, 26.628495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.4, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 3275.0, "trend": 26.074, "fair_value": 23.480071, "relative_strength": -0.615566, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.906048, "energy": 60.994692, "activity_lines": [ 28.312667, 28.138182, 27.490571, 26.78243 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.559999, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 3240.0, "trend": 26.177333, "fair_value": 23.522887, "relative_strength": 0.404347, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.886418, "energy": 68.306698, "activity_lines": [ 28.728, 28.432182, 27.765857, 27.007333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }