{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04cfe4a4-7412-4076-b427-5748e0a9a92d", "symbol": "002158", "name": "Shanghai Hanbell Precise Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.018, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.043, "architecture_energy": 28.254, "architecture_maturity": 60.016, "architecture_confidence": 54.709, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.59, "rotation_up": 19.45, "upward_expansion": 19.89, "deceleration": 67.26, "rotation_down": 61.63, "downward_expansion": 40.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.179334, 29.473091, 29.823131, 28.845939 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.08, "trend_reference": 27.72778, "distance_from_trend": 0.012703, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.246204, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.321648, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.603289, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.130435, "excess_performance": 0.123035, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012703, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082491, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.321648, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184642, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046033, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067618, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130435, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.808164, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66736511, "relative_activity": 1.196503, "balance": 1.808164, "dry_up": 1.385498, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159157, "annualized_volatility": 0.739764, "from_high_reference": -0.262024, "from_low_reference": 0.652737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.72778, "fair_value_reference": 21.246204, "structural_low": 21.130183, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.048475, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.026202, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.19296, "worst_return": -0.149831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.044118, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.018735, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.090395, "worst_return": -0.354487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01832, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002637, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072413, "worst_return": -0.151582, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047091, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.21309, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01843, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012623, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051832, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031024, "active": 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"close": 24.860001, "volume": 76735260, "typical_volume": 51535118.6, "trend": 27.624113, "fair_value": 21.188118, "relative_strength": -3.122857, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.951472, "energy": 9.140917, "activity_lines": [ 29.890667, 30.965286, 30.157116, 28.952405 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.52, "volume": 78403345, "typical_volume": 53642654.05, "trend": 27.626113, "fair_value": 21.206102, "relative_strength": 0.609399, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.457672, "energy": 18.766955, "activity_lines": [ 27.826667, 29.898456, 29.871052, 28.816656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.08, "volume": 66736511, "typical_volume": 55776282.0, "trend": 27.72778, "fair_value": 21.246204, "relative_strength": 4.603289, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.043472, "energy": 28.253907, "activity_lines": [ 27.179334, 29.473091, 29.823131, 28.845939 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }