{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04d1fbee-2d44-468b-a361-633f27c19353", "symbol": "SMBS", "name": "iShares US Mortgage Backed Securities UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.713, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.988, "architecture_energy": 64.575, "architecture_maturity": 39.657, "architecture_confidence": 81.137, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.4, "rotation_up": 11.12, "upward_expansion": 14.03, "deceleration": 37.71, "rotation_down": 72.94, "downward_expansion": 92.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 307.211667, 309.081658, 310.779183, 312.05633 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 306.7, "trend_reference": 313.186466, "distance_from_trend": -0.020711, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 318.070928, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.03575, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.811518, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014698, "excess_performance": -0.065933, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020711, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008858, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.03575, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011709, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108115, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037466, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014698, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.292281, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 279744, "relative_activity": 3.935143, "balance": 2.292281, "dry_up": 1.385151, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016342, "annualized_volatility": 0.065863, "from_high_reference": -0.283132, "from_low_reference": 0.00855 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 313.186466, "fair_value_reference": 318.070928, "structural_low": 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62280.55, "trend": 313.807301, "fair_value": 318.257256, "relative_strength": -8.690401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.238861, "energy": 38.307589, "activity_lines": [ 310.728333, 311.540379, 312.55255, 313.335377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 309.175, "volume": 47323, "typical_volume": 62459.8, "trend": 313.735634, "fair_value": 318.206954, "relative_strength": -9.373629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.172346, "energy": 53.161579, "activity_lines": [ 309.773333, 310.98914, 312.105912, 313.036519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 305.35, "volume": 25794, "typical_volume": 59961.3, "trend": 313.5073, "fair_value": 318.138537, "relative_strength": -11.243156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.592385, "energy": 67.672282, "activity_lines": [ 307.886667, 309.843656, 311.346535, 312.49551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 306.7, "volume": 279744, "typical_volume": 71088.65, "trend": 313.186466, "fair_value": 318.070928, "relative_strength": -10.811518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.987835, "energy": 64.575196, "activity_lines": [ 307.211667, 309.081658, 310.779183, 312.05633 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }