{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "04d4ddde-3b09-46e4-9828-f76df528a2bf",
    "symbol": "CCEUAS",
    "name": "UBS CMCI Composite SF UCITS ETF hEUR acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 79.627,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 65.624,
    "architecture_energy": 67.552,
    "architecture_maturity": 9.212,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.136,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.37,
        "rotation_up": 72.93,
        "upward_expansion": 86.74,
        "deceleration": 46.23,
        "rotation_down": 11.88,
        "downward_expansion": 15.74
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        100.288666,
        99.148989
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 102.980003,
    "trend_reference": 96.681333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.065149,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 82.792115,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.243838,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -2.297202,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.174097,
    "excess_performance": 0.003205,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.065149,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.059626,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.243838,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.022856,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.022972,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.073084,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.174097,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.908405,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 10946,
      "relative_activity": 1.396405,
      "balance": 0.908405,
      "dry_up": 1.210915,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.02775,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.125391,
      "from_high_reference": -0.033687,
      "from_low_reference": 0.292582
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    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 82.792115,
      "structural_low": 85.980003,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 30,
        "median_return": 0.012795,
        "positive_rate": 0.7,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.7,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005751,
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        "worst_return": -0.106897,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "worst_return": -0.153254,
        "sufficient": true
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        "worst_return": -0.041452,
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 11456.75,
        "trend": 88.515667,
        "fair_value": 80.588013,
        "relative_strength": 6.591584,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 67.992287,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 11548.7,
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        "relative_strength": 5.011245,
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        "energy": 67.333618,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 11783.65,
        "trend": 89.967667,
        "fair_value": 80.954551,
        "relative_strength": 6.254246,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 102.919998,
        "volume": 10697,
        "typical_volume": 11753.85,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 101.480003,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 100.400002,
        "volume": 6835,
        "typical_volume": 11000.55,
        "trend": 91.836334,
        "fair_value": 81.487244,
        "relative_strength": 1.47282,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 50.352737,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 99.110001,
        "volume": 1239,
        "typical_volume": 10513.4,
        "trend": 92.348334,
        "fair_value": 81.630833,
        "relative_strength": -2.813175,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "fair_value": 81.775513,
        "relative_strength": -6.508434,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 23.946991,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 455,
        "typical_volume": 9799.7,
        "trend": 93.294,
        "fair_value": 81.910962,
        "relative_strength": -5.499479,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 17.791791,
        "energy": 22.34114,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 96.43,
        "volume": 531,
        "typical_volume": 9238.7,
        "trend": 93.704667,
        "fair_value": 82.048526,
        "relative_strength": -7.232614,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 19.912298,
        "activity_lines": [
          97.046666,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 98.589996,
        "volume": 5439,
        "typical_volume": 9066.55,
        "trend": 94.230333,
        "fair_value": 82.187372,
        "relative_strength": -4.63909,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 8.285536,
        "energy": 19.449686,
        "activity_lines": [
          97.305332,
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          99.083476,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 101.279999,
        "volume": 9542,
        "typical_volume": 8825.15,
        "trend": 94.857333,
        "fair_value": 82.335641,
        "relative_strength": -0.576931,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.187947,
        "energy": 18.248668,
        "activity_lines": [
          98.581332,
          98.847454,
          99.367238,
          97.78271
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 103.099998,
        "volume": 8196,
        "typical_volume": 8790.8,
        "trend": 95.500667,
        "fair_value": 82.489295,
        "relative_strength": 1.372931,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.708737,
        "energy": 36.887571,
        "activity_lines": [
          100.319332,
          99.471999,
          99.769904,
          98.314494
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 101.559998,
        "volume": 9284,
        "typical_volume": 8161.75,
        "trend": 96.104666,
        "fair_value": 82.635192,
        "relative_strength": -0.797188,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.060134,
        "energy": 48.282403,
        "activity_lines": [
          101.176665,
          99.820362,
          99.972142,
          98.705419
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 102.980003,
        "volume": 10946,
        "typical_volume": 7838.7,
        "trend": 96.681333,
        "fair_value": 82.792115,
        "relative_strength": -2.297202,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.623578,
        "energy": 67.551843,
        "activity_lines": [
          102.106,
          100.451636,
          100.288666,
          99.148989
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}