{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04d8141a-b865-4141-bc28-908021798754", "symbol": "VIU", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed All Cap ex North Amer Idx ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.861, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.527, "architecture_energy": 29.965, "architecture_maturity": 56.309, "architecture_confidence": 84.314, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.12, "rotation_up": 32.83, "upward_expansion": 59.06, "deceleration": 88.03, "rotation_down": 27.19, "downward_expansion": 20.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.72, 49.877383, 49.243277, 48.36897 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 50.639999, "trend_reference": 47.381672, "distance_from_trend": 0.068768, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.13508, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.36367, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.17904, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.095603, "excess_performance": -0.024819, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068768, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05224, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.36367, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003308, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00179, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013623, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095603, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.179959, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 844300, "relative_activity": 1.135201, "balance": 1.179959, "dry_up": 1.348446, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03014, "annualized_volatility": 0.208626, "from_high_reference": -0.012865, "from_low_reference": 0.288295 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.381672, "fair_value_reference": 37.13508, "structural_low": 42.450001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.019327, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.004062, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.122828, "worst_return": -0.025251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024101, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.000896, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.199624, "worst_return": 0.003971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.02688, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.046601, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.21919, "worst_return": -0.050778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"typical_volume": 868540.0, "trend": 46.785466, "fair_value": 36.740215, "relative_strength": -0.801854, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.098124, "energy": 46.53716, "activity_lines": [ 49.950667, 49.781463, 48.652965, 47.841574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.02, "volume": 738400, "typical_volume": 732195.0, "trend": 46.988073, "fair_value": 36.865282, "relative_strength": -0.303966, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.310041, "energy": 35.401194, "activity_lines": [ 49.537, 49.715834, 48.808135, 47.985737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.48, "volume": 1178500, "typical_volume": 743485.0, "trend": 47.191811, "fair_value": 36.996373, "relative_strength": 1.052756, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.153766, "energy": 24.961956, "activity_lines": [ 49.414, 49.701513, 48.984166, 48.146507 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.639999, "volume": 844300, "typical_volume": 743745.0, "trend": 47.381672, "fair_value": 37.13508, "relative_strength": 0.17904, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.527472, "energy": 29.964788, "activity_lines": [ 49.72, 49.877383, 49.243277, 48.36897 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }