{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04dce846-3da9-4783-918a-db7b6ecf82a8", "symbol": "DUR", "name": "Duratec Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 64.004, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.397, "architecture_energy": 60.552, "architecture_maturity": 13.416, "architecture_confidence": 65.781, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.75, "rotation_up": 16.81, "upward_expansion": 21.42, "deceleration": 43.3, "rotation_down": 73.08, "downward_expansion": 65.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.212, 2.332909, 2.462667, 2.47525 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.21, "trend_reference": 2.435811, "distance_from_trend": -0.092705, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.623569, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.361198, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.502928, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.050175, "excess_performance": -0.013531, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092705, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088591, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.361198, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.370898, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045029, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.388242, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050175, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.816295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2407053, "relative_activity": 1.284318, "balance": 0.816295, "dry_up": 0.940328, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107205, "annualized_volatility": 0.453846, "from_high_reference": -0.253378, "from_low_reference": 0.57671 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.435811, "fair_value_reference": 1.623569, "structural_low": 1.905882, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.10072, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.071127, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.196971, "worst_return": 0.04091, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.256469, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.215649, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.464442, "worst_return": 0.009091, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.304154, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.290527, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.6177, "worst_return": 0.295537, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.091828, 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"2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013468, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10031, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112195, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.194367, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.094808, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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37.169386, "activity_lines": [ 2.704667, 2.652545, 2.632948, 2.525816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.37, "volume": 565468, "typical_volume": 2073329.8, "trend": 2.37251, "fair_value": 1.587669, "relative_strength": 10.864852, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.654741, "energy": 14.570853, "activity_lines": [ 2.602, 2.600182, 2.61596, 2.526684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.4, "volume": 1507883, "typical_volume": 2023070.65, "trend": 2.391627, "fair_value": 1.596084, "relative_strength": 11.842141, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.254287, "energy": 6.435892, "activity_lines": [ 2.521333, 2.562909, 2.600612, 2.528458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.22, "volume": 1102657, "typical_volume": 1981608.75, "trend": 2.4064, "fair_value": 1.603228, "relative_strength": 2.904605, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.971343, "energy": 33.00141, "activity_lines": [ 2.4, 2.498909, 2.567707, 2.517385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.27, "volume": 1321352, "typical_volume": 1908525.4, "trend": 2.418371, "fair_value": 1.61084, "relative_strength": 4.768795, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.688828, "energy": 44.094083, "activity_lines": [ 2.322667, 2.451091, 2.538918, 2.508585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.12, "volume": 2218344, "typical_volume": 1920046.0, "trend": 2.428321, "fair_value": 1.617342, "relative_strength": -4.887765, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.892205, "energy": 60.355328, "activity_lines": [ 2.234, 2.381455, 2.496, 2.489335 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.21, "volume": 2407053, "typical_volume": 1874188.05, "trend": 2.435811, "fair_value": 1.623569, "relative_strength": -4.502928, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.397427, "energy": 60.552218, "activity_lines": [ 2.212, 2.332909, 2.462667, 2.47525 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }