{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04ea0719-29ce-4e31-982d-07b1f3dc8207", "symbol": "FEL", "name": "FORTE ENE FPO [FEL]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.971, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.113, "architecture_energy": 13.326, "architecture_maturity": 21.625, "architecture_confidence": 61.205, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.03, "rotation_up": 27.0, "upward_expansion": 33.02, "deceleration": 34.72, "rotation_down": 35.06, "downward_expansion": 43.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.005933, 0.005891, 0.005824, 0.005901 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.005, "trend_reference": 0.006, "distance_from_trend": -0.166667, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.007378, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.322328, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.637035, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.230372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086294, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.322328, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150199, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.29637, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098197, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.194182, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4849576, "relative_activity": 1.451332, "balance": 2.194182, "dry_up": 0.60748, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230769, "annualized_volatility": 1.509303, "from_high_reference": -0.583333, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.006, "fair_value_reference": 0.007378, "structural_low": 0.004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.26087, "directional_follow_through": 0.26087, "median_excess_return": -0.125241, "regime_survival": 0.521739, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.357143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.196429, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.19717, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.269231, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.289881, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.444444, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.238095, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.338483, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.1, "worst_return": -0.692308, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.75, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false 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"typical_volume": 5602715.3, "trend": 0.006133, "fair_value": 0.007423, "relative_strength": -11.971523, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.41071, "energy": 10.895348, "activity_lines": [ 0.005933, 0.005782, 0.005814, 0.00592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.007, "volume": 811267, "typical_volume": 5124931.1, "trend": 0.0061, "fair_value": 0.007417, "relative_strength": 2.716145, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.499615, "energy": 18.482314, "activity_lines": [ 0.006333, 0.006, 0.005914, 0.005976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 689184, "typical_volume": 3410090.0, "trend": 0.006067, "fair_value": 0.007397, "relative_strength": -13.664636, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.836831, "energy": 16.996267, "activity_lines": [ 0.006333, 0.006036, 0.005914, 0.00597 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.005, "volume": 4849576, "typical_volume": 3341465.05, "trend": 0.006, "fair_value": 0.007378, "relative_strength": -29.637035, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.112596, "energy": 13.325564, "activity_lines": [ 0.005933, 0.005891, 0.005824, 0.005901 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }