{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04ea7a83-984d-4a8c-82eb-a52ef3b103cd", "symbol": "STM", "name": "Stadlauer Malzfabrik Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.46, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.131, "architecture_energy": 28.136, "architecture_maturity": 65.159, "architecture_confidence": 88.127, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.19, "rotation_up": 35.24, "upward_expansion": 21.03, "deceleration": 44.17, "rotation_down": 33.95, "downward_expansion": 62.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.403572, 54.237988, 54.83648, 54.857489 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 54.0, "trend_reference": 55.486905, "distance_from_trend": -0.026797, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.589421, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.026822, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.401469, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.06087, "excess_performance": -0.235116, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026797, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002473, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.026822, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071984, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194015, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084993, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06087, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.02849, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.02849, "dry_up": 1.173021, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016941, "annualized_volatility": 0.237397, "from_high_reference": -0.129032, "from_low_reference": 0.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.486905, "fair_value_reference": 52.589421, "structural_low": 50.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.020847, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.357143, "worst_return": -0.162393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.020855, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.006078, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.24, "worst_return": -0.090136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.03545, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062447, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.13, "worst_return": -0.102362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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54.65, "fair_value": 51.87449, "relative_strength": -10.90219, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.147946, "energy": 45.222185, "activity_lines": [ 56.166667, 55.227273, 55.347619, 55.288172 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 57.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 40.95, "trend": 54.883333, "fair_value": 51.91909, "relative_strength": -10.153872, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.377737, "energy": 57.636575, "activity_lines": [ 56.5, 55.718182, 55.442857, 55.439785 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 56.0, "volume": 147, "typical_volume": 48.3, "trend": 55.15, "fair_value": 51.975437, "relative_strength": -13.154775, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.489697, "energy": 60.484236, "activity_lines": [ 56.466667, 55.963636, 55.42619, 55.511828 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 56.0, "volume": 110, "typical_volume": 53.75, "trend": 55.35, "fair_value": 52.031784, "relative_strength": -15.099964, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.828687, "energy": 58.418385, "activity_lines": [ 56.366667, 56.118182, 55.397619, 55.566667 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 56.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 53.75, "trend": 55.433333, "fair_value": 52.091336, "relative_strength": -13.055408, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.818838, "energy": 45.913471, "activity_lines": [ 56.366667, 56.272727, 55.445238, 55.64086 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 55.0, "volume": 54, "typical_volume": 56.45, "trend": 55.466667, "fair_value": 52.171536, "relative_strength": -17.253072, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.444214, "energy": 8.114997, "activity_lines": [ 55.866667, 56.054545, 55.37619, 55.612903 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 55.0, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 56.5, "trend": 55.5, "fair_value": 52.237209, "relative_strength": -20.078005, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.840058, "energy": 17.010824, "activity_lines": [ 55.5, 55.863636, 55.340476, 55.582796 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 55.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 55.65, "trend": 55.533333, "fair_value": 52.293199, "relative_strength": -18.019639, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.876386, "energy": 21.791151, "activity_lines": [ 55.266667, 55.7, 55.338095, 55.550538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 52.053574, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 55.65, "trend": 55.568452, "fair_value": 52.335143, "relative_strength": -23.747377, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.390992, "energy": 89.91811, "activity_lines": [ 54.117858, 55.00065, 55.067007, 55.326037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 52.053574, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 50.4, "trend": 55.603572, "fair_value": 52.38435, "relative_strength": -22.27992, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.95697, "energy": 97.049638, "activity_lines": [ 53.232144, 54.354871, 54.821854, 55.099271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.0, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 44.65, "trend": 55.653572, "fair_value": 52.464549, "relative_strength": -15.86902, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.6447, "energy": 81.859913, "activity_lines": [ 53.625001, 54.32565, 54.864201, 55.060331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 44.65, "trend": 55.736905, "fair_value": 52.51472, "relative_strength": -15.013929, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.518567, "energy": 52.241086, "activity_lines": [ 54.351191, 54.514611, 54.994643, 55.082681 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.0, "volume": 150, "typical_volume": 42.85, "trend": 55.753572, "fair_value": 52.552071, "relative_strength": -17.526611, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.808283, "energy": 34.897619, "activity_lines": [ 54.344048, 54.358117, 54.922704, 54.970622 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 34.1, "trend": 55.486905, "fair_value": 52.589421, "relative_strength": -19.401469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.13143, "energy": 28.135524, "activity_lines": [ 54.403572, 54.237988, 54.83648, 54.857489 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }