{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04eb97ca-2094-4251-b3ec-3925385259be", "symbol": "DKL", "name": "Dekel Agri-Vision plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.121, "architecture_energy": 21.177, "architecture_maturity": 37.657, "architecture_confidence": 67.634, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.28, "rotation_up": 22.79, "upward_expansion": 1.88, "deceleration": 54.89, "rotation_down": 29.96, "downward_expansion": 61.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.00375, 0.00375, 0.003836, 0.003935 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.00375, "trend_reference": 0.004067, "distance_from_trend": -0.077869, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.011054, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.660752, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.237385, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.117647, "excess_performance": -0.168882, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077869, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077505, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.660752, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022046, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222374, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065596, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.117647, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1528639, "relative_activity": 0.507073, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.282033, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143385, "annualized_volatility": 0.17357, "from_high_reference": -0.375, "from_low_reference": 0.071429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.004067, "fair_value_reference": 0.011054, "structural_low": 0.0035, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.008475, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00096, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 0.39, "worst_return": -0.510638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.117647, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.165811, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.74359, "worst_return": -0.463415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.153636, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.199794, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.104167, "worst_return": -0.55102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.43617, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.567491, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.12, "worst_return": -0.653061, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098361, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015873, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.16129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.478723, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020833, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.485496, "energy": 26.146991, "activity_lines": [ 0.00375, 0.003759, 0.003907, 0.004008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00375, "volume": 1230239, "typical_volume": 3422404.05, "trend": 0.004117, "fair_value": 0.011435, "relative_strength": -22.614272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.174972, "energy": 24.119716, "activity_lines": [ 0.00375, 0.00375, 0.003881, 0.003981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00375, "volume": 494363, "typical_volume": 3412594.3, "trend": 0.004092, "fair_value": 0.011245, "relative_strength": -22.78403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.101377, "energy": 22.553658, "activity_lines": [ 0.00375, 0.00375, 0.003857, 0.003958 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00375, "volume": 1528639, "typical_volume": 3014633.55, "trend": 0.004067, "fair_value": 0.011054, "relative_strength": -22.237385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.121021, "energy": 21.176866, "activity_lines": [ 0.00375, 0.00375, 0.003836, 0.003935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }