{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04ee5b4c-fd76-44ab-8d18-c71d33672bc2", "symbol": "2734", "name": "Ezfly International Travel Agent Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.368, "architecture_energy": 43.336, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.3, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.53, "rotation_up": 19.54, "upward_expansion": 5.81, "deceleration": 48.16, "rotation_down": 52.97, "downward_expansion": 76.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.833333, 14.990909, 15.24381, 15.571935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.9, "trend_reference": 16.141667, "distance_from_trend": -0.076923, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.866523, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.465308, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.328616, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.196765, "excess_performance": -0.638137, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076923, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073649, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.465308, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040394, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.413286, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065893, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.196765, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.600191, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 302405, "relative_activity": 0.556813, "balance": 0.600191, "dry_up": 0.644613, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051368, "annualized_volatility": 0.193812, "from_high_reference": -0.314943, "from_low_reference": 0.060498 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.141667, "fair_value_reference": 27.866523, "structural_low": 14.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.013514, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.049157, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.421622, "worst_return": -0.182209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.00716, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.106017, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.368333, "worst_return": -0.266667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013514, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.174215, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.773376, "worst_return": -0.321691, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": -60.282715, "energy": 39.686012, "activity_lines": [ 15.183333, 15.246364, 15.519286, 15.890968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.4, "volume": 569377, "typical_volume": 548708.9, "trend": 16.375, "fair_value": 28.366523, "relative_strength": -41.881697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.341061, "energy": 55.864625, "activity_lines": [ 14.906667, 15.087273, 15.387143, 15.754409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.9, "volume": 217563, "typical_volume": 546082.65, "trend": 16.253333, "fair_value": 28.097933, "relative_strength": -40.327709, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.396171, "energy": 52.717917, "activity_lines": [ 14.856667, 15.039091, 15.312143, 15.659247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.9, "volume": 302405, "typical_volume": 543100.1, "trend": 16.141667, "fair_value": 27.866523, "relative_strength": -41.328616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.368104, "energy": 43.33563, "activity_lines": [ 14.833333, 14.990909, 15.24381, 15.571935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }