{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04f423e5-87e1-4d26-8df1-3880a5a3b705", "symbol": "00714", "name": "Capital Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.107, "architecture_energy": 76.495, "architecture_maturity": 34.074, "architecture_confidence": 62.536, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.62, "rotation_up": 75.14, "upward_expansion": 93.07, "deceleration": 43.33, "rotation_down": 11.46, "downward_expansion": 17.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.559192, 22.323924, 21.952816, 21.652505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.33, "trend_reference": 21.247835, "distance_from_trend": 0.050931, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.597978, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139403, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.520791, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.109097, "excess_performance": -0.270215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050931, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038993, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139403, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019187, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205208, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077646, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109097, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.672414, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1260000, "relative_activity": 1.585512, "balance": 0.672414, "dry_up": 1.817378, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02314, "annualized_volatility": 0.128079, "from_high_reference": -0.035421, "from_low_reference": 0.190174 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.247835, "fair_value_reference": 19.597978, "structural_low": 19.715917, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.009452, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.016436, "regime_survival": 0.653846, "best_return": 0.104961, "worst_return": -0.135332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.01232, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.078795, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.138336, "worst_return": -0.126782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.046936, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.014715, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.17104, "worst_return": -0.07609, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 21.917887, "volume": 882200, "typical_volume": 754224.95, "trend": 20.86018, "fair_value": 19.476435, "relative_strength": -26.503038, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.086179, "energy": 56.515022, "activity_lines": [ 21.863523, 21.722504, 21.46899, 21.229699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.790001, "volume": 1540650, "typical_volume": 777383.45, "trend": 20.962584, "fair_value": 19.509045, "relative_strength": -18.100822, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.13995, "energy": 83.583862, "activity_lines": [ 22.196658, 21.934087, 21.615696, 21.354203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.68, "volume": 1499230, "typical_volume": 739109.7, "trend": 21.06198, "fair_value": 19.539459, "relative_strength": -19.665385, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.370167, "energy": 85.389053, "activity_lines": [ 22.421726, 22.102396, 21.743159, 21.465004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 1477169, "typical_volume": 769151.9, "trend": 21.161753, "fair_value": 19.570165, "relative_strength": -17.522215, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.446422, "energy": 85.415194, "activity_lines": [ 22.596207, 22.266887, 21.874942, 21.577134 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.33, "volume": 1260000, "typical_volume": 794695.75, "trend": 21.247835, "fair_value": 19.597978, "relative_strength": -20.520791, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.107033, "energy": 76.494779, "activity_lines": [ 22.559192, 22.323924, 21.952816, 21.652505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }