{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04f69d3b-d564-4ba1-a8c8-3accee620b54", "symbol": "BV", "name": "BrightView Holdings", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.059, "architecture_energy": 11.327, "architecture_maturity": 67.574, "architecture_confidence": 71.531, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.0, "rotation_up": 21.74, "upward_expansion": 58.25, "deceleration": 85.33, "rotation_down": 37.53, "downward_expansion": 21.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.995333, 13.446364, 13.175762, 12.984796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.45, "trend_reference": 12.909, "distance_from_trend": -0.113022, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.822244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107021, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.699755, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.154982, "excess_performance": -0.280606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113022, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024172, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107021, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158817, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216998, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054985, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.154982, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.519274, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13294036, "relative_activity": 3.570115, "balance": 0.519274, "dry_up": 1.809164, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097568, "annualized_volatility": 0.370636, "from_high_reference": -0.25842, "from_low_reference": 0.098848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.909, "fair_value_reference": 12.822244, "structural_low": 10.42, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.005011, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.014492, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.33528, "worst_return": -0.140645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.07859, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.034366, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.413302, "worst_return": -0.203242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.088639, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.02622, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.639908, "worst_return": -0.004778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.410723, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.20083, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.785268, "worst_return": 0.036177, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023318, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000745, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.321486, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017522, 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"trend": 12.851333, "fair_value": 12.686795, "relative_strength": -2.78505, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.262339, "energy": 75.186905, "activity_lines": [ 14.132, 13.55, 12.976619, 12.895054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.52, "volume": 6736360, "typical_volume": 3237254.05, "trend": 12.911, "fair_value": 12.730705, "relative_strength": 0.857929, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.554273, "energy": 77.922384, "activity_lines": [ 14.354, 13.788545, 13.152952, 13.00271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.06, "volume": 3402532, "typical_volume": 3244067.6, "trend": 12.951, "fair_value": 12.770897, "relative_strength": -1.09402, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.19666, "energy": 66.86525, "activity_lines": [ 14.314, 13.915273, 13.282, 13.076839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.04, "volume": 3514204, "typical_volume": 3199716.15, "trend": 12.965667, "fair_value": 12.803141, "relative_strength": -8.558417, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.978588, "energy": 34.641885, "activity_lines": [ 13.866667, 13.829455, 13.307524, 13.082581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.45, "volume": 13294036, "typical_volume": 3723700.15, "trend": 12.909, "fair_value": 12.822244, "relative_strength": -21.699755, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.058567, "energy": 11.327249, "activity_lines": [ 12.995333, 13.446364, 13.175762, 12.984796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }