{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04f6bad4-08a1-4291-a7d6-af75d5f131c2", "symbol": "EMUUSD", "name": "UBS Core MSCI EMU UCITS ETF hUSD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.355, "architecture_energy": 64.694, "architecture_maturity": 60.303, "architecture_confidence": 77.174, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.29, "rotation_up": 54.46, "upward_expansion": 81.93, "deceleration": 67.26, "rotation_down": 27.43, "downward_expansion": 10.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.285667, 26.168545, 25.665119, 25.163688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.844999, "trend_reference": 24.624333, "distance_from_trend": 0.090182, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.865465, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.35134, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.839404, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.122987, "excess_performance": 0.040103, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090182, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047643, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.35134, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064408, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028394, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028053, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122987, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.999242, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 199927, "relative_activity": 2.224537, "balance": 5.999242, "dry_up": 1.372467, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02086, "annualized_volatility": 0.167259, "from_high_reference": -0.005004, "from_low_reference": 0.287221 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.624333, "fair_value_reference": 19.865465, "structural_low": 21.709999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.005045, "positive_rate": 0.685714, "directional_follow_through": 0.685714, "median_excess_return": 0.007146, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.0575, "worst_return": -0.078519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.02294, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.017841, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.096192, "worst_return": -0.096007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.093621, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.041652, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.123755, "worst_return": -0.170815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.149471, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.118213, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.229381, "worst_return": -0.007795, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0337, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091671, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030437, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.099754, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038084, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015894, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002629, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031419, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066697, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": 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25.648273, 24.93569, 24.572279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.040001, "volume": 28127, "typical_volume": 122587.15, "trend": 24.219833, "fair_value": 19.593926, "relative_strength": 2.132595, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.170348, "energy": 84.876398, "activity_lines": [ 26.130667, 25.790455, 25.088548, 24.697054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.764999, "volume": 59662, "typical_volume": 120547.35, "trend": 24.316333, "fair_value": 19.658689, "relative_strength": 0.241717, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.610072, "energy": 67.954409, "activity_lines": [ 26.032, 25.848, 25.207881, 24.796742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.91, "volume": 73744, "typical_volume": 104612.35, "trend": 24.418666, "fair_value": 19.723138, "relative_strength": 0.873844, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.446382, "energy": 57.494137, "activity_lines": [ 25.979667, 25.908182, 25.335619, 24.899559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.190001, "volume": 160061, "typical_volume": 93320.45, "trend": 24.522333, "fair_value": 19.792266, "relative_strength": 1.789903, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.698194, "energy": 53.858153, "activity_lines": [ 26.035334, 25.989, 25.476571, 25.013839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.844999, "volume": 199927, "typical_volume": 89873.55, "trend": 24.624333, "fair_value": 19.865465, "relative_strength": 2.839404, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.354641, "energy": 64.693927, "activity_lines": [ 26.285667, 26.168545, 25.665119, 25.163688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }