{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04fdf83c-51eb-43b9-b5e4-722072eaebf2", "symbol": "ECO", "name": "EcoSynthetix Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -88.465, "architecture_energy": 84.204, "architecture_maturity": 72.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.953, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 9.62, "upward_expansion": 17.35, "deceleration": 38.44, "rotation_down": 84.97, "downward_expansion": 95.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.602, 2.767636, 2.958667, 3.099398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.3, "trend_reference": 3.335667, "distance_from_trend": -0.310483, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.082821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.436664, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.630494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.405685, "excess_performance": -0.526106, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.310483, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117003, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.436664, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.456305, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144533, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.405685, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.061207, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88000, "relative_activity": 0.951814, "balance": 1.061207, "dry_up": 0.982099, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124749, "annualized_volatility": 0.412119, "from_high_reference": -0.541833, "from_low_reference": 0.059908 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.335667, "fair_value_reference": 4.082821, "structural_low": 2.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.008728, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005323, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.272131, "worst_return": -0.199597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.069652, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.029538, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.391304, "worst_return": -0.239669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.037209, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.141989, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.057851, "worst_return": -0.167391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.196217, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143137, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108352, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0199, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013921, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07234, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070732, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.115288, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.124434, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.452381, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.22, "volume": 314300, "typical_volume": 390120.0, "trend": 3.391667, "fair_value": 4.473526, "relative_strength": 14.516397, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 55.942094, "energy": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.558923, "energy": 79.852313, "activity_lines": [ 2.899333, 3.012909, 3.120333, 3.264559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.75, "volume": 31500, "typical_volume": 86870.0, "trend": 3.455667, "fair_value": 4.098462, "relative_strength": -35.043028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.196994, "energy": 77.485946, "activity_lines": [ 2.827333, 2.949091, 3.076762, 3.216366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.75, "volume": 111100, "typical_volume": 90790.0, "trend": 3.407333, "fair_value": 4.092692, "relative_strength": -33.914632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.100645, "energy": 65.107196, "activity_lines": [ 2.778, 2.894, 3.037286, 3.170839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.3, "volume": 88000, "typical_volume": 92455.0, "trend": 3.335667, "fair_value": 4.082821, "relative_strength": -45.630494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.464678, "energy": 84.203606, "activity_lines": [ 2.602, 2.767636, 2.958667, 3.099398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }