{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "04ffcb14-5691-4487-9536-f00a290342c9",
    "symbol": "TROAX",
    "name": "Troax Group AB (publ)",
    "exchange": "STO",
    "country": "SE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^OMX",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 84.748,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 81.347,
    "architecture_energy": 92.531,
    "architecture_maturity": 28.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.849,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.36,
        "rotation_up": 81.56,
        "upward_expansion": 95.23,
        "deceleration": 44.67,
        "rotation_down": 10.69,
        "downward_expansion": 24.23
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        138.746668,
        127.323637,
        119.044316,
        114.631315
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 146.800003,
    "trend_reference": 113.119592,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.297742,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 176.804406,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.169704,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 3.196237,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.428223,
    "excess_performance": 0.366729,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.297742,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.061146,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.169704,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.259607,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.031962,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.321725,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.428223,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.404811,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 175962,
      "relative_activity": 0.594429,
      "balance": 1.404811,
      "dry_up": 1.153222,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.075299,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.53731,
      "from_high_reference": -0.103006,
      "from_low_reference": 0.66035
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 113.119592,
      "fair_value_reference": 176.804406,
      "structural_low": 88.415097,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.026722,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.036639,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.208619,
        "worst_return": -0.117504,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.095389,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.031308,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.099692,
        "worst_return": 0.091087,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.20328,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.07083,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.250782,
        "worst_return": 0.155777,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.087209,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.02435,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.15269,
        "worst_return": 0.021728,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-29",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.104982,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.135858,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-08-02",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.064935,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.031603,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.004819,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-12-06",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.154486,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.055221,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.239031,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.024457,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.016282,
        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "return": 0.028409,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.048571,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 498076.15,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -22.704935,
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 517312,
        "typical_volume": 326950.05,
        "trend": 114.111688,
        "fair_value": 178.063021,
        "relative_strength": -26.905952,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 31.560911,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 140.0,
        "volume": 846627,
        "typical_volume": 345039.35,
        "trend": 113.875275,
        "fair_value": 177.773671,
        "relative_strength": 2.275727,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 48.145227,
        "energy": 37.979071,
        "activity_lines": [
          116.159999,
          112.843636,
          109.867422,
          109.389376
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 134.399994,
        "volume": 223160,
        "typical_volume": 329423.75,
        "trend": 113.432237,
        "fair_value": 177.424854,
        "relative_strength": -2.930831,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 49.662472,
        "energy": 65.964133,
        "activity_lines": [
          123.653331,
          117.083635,
          112.521959,
          110.713551
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 140.600006,
        "volume": 119750,
        "typical_volume": 298767.9,
        "trend": 113.242435,
        "fair_value": 177.104313,
        "relative_strength": 0.498044,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 52.498011,
        "energy": 76.994506,
        "activity_lines": [
          131.386667,
          121.909091,
          115.586964,
          112.466311
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 146.800003,
        "volume": 175962,
        "typical_volume": 296018.3,
        "trend": 113.119592,
        "fair_value": 176.804406,
        "relative_strength": 3.196237,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.346991,
        "energy": 92.531093,
        "activity_lines": [
          138.746668,
          127.323637,
          119.044316,
          114.631315
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}