{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0500f5e4-d8d6-4cb9-ae8e-ea8a6d4e79c0", "symbol": "ZCN", "name": "BMO S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.167, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.148, "architecture_energy": 71.876, "architecture_maturity": 37.981, "architecture_confidence": 74.244, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.78, "rotation_up": 71.57, "upward_expansion": 87.91, "deceleration": 51.1, "rotation_down": 18.95, "downward_expansion": 12.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.733333, 47.381595, 46.745955, 46.115007 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 48.73, "trend_reference": 45.340367, "distance_from_trend": 0.07476, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.195385, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.425046, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.647524, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.126444, "excess_performance": 0.006023, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07476, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04214, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.425046, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022263, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006475, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001062, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126444, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.266427, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 716700, "relative_activity": 0.950209, "balance": 1.266427, "dry_up": 1.624451, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017325, "annualized_volatility": 0.128459, "from_high_reference": -0.001639, "from_low_reference": 0.336674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.340367, "fair_value_reference": 34.195385, "structural_low": 41.599237, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": 0.012987, "positive_rate": 0.717391, "directional_follow_through": 0.717391, "median_excess_return": 0.002211, "regime_survival": 0.804348, "best_return": 0.052645, "worst_return": -0.055877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.014687, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.007189, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.111604, "worst_return": -0.043919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.070146, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.013417, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.194164, "worst_return": -0.127735, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 47.169998, "volume": 1232800, "typical_volume": 747860.0, "trend": 44.844374, "fair_value": 33.76409, "relative_strength": 0.605423, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.375042, "energy": 76.464249, "activity_lines": [ 47.088795, 46.792614, 46.125537, 45.583387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.32, "volume": 1619900, "typical_volume": 756435.0, "trend": 45.002834, "fair_value": 33.904009, "relative_strength": 0.595282, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.248548, "energy": 71.924844, "activity_lines": [ 47.204466, 46.945171, 46.307471, 45.743105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.200001, "volume": 1331600, "typical_volume": 773945.0, "trend": 45.162676, "fair_value": 34.045417, "relative_strength": 0.715438, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.584472, "energy": 56.871794, "activity_lines": [ 47.229333, 47.035646, 46.462811, 45.884858 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.73, "volume": 716700, "typical_volume": 754255.0, "trend": 45.340367, "fair_value": 34.195385, "relative_strength": 0.647524, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.148041, "energy": 71.875753, "activity_lines": [ 47.733333, 47.381595, 46.745955, 46.115007 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }