{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0506d966-3776-4801-80e1-d2a32f0bbbcf", "symbol": "TOWN", "name": "Aroundtown SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.553, "architecture_energy": 75.297, "architecture_maturity": 52.616, "architecture_confidence": 89.351, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.19, "rotation_up": 12.12, "upward_expansion": 17.89, "deceleration": 37.55, "rotation_down": 67.37, "downward_expansion": 88.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.164267, 2.207818, 2.273437, 2.339027 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.182, "trend_reference": 2.44538, "distance_from_trend": -0.107705, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.485496, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.122107, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.613037, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.230064, "excess_performance": -0.40431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107705, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074863, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.122107, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105451, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.35613, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038245, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.230064, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": null, "balance": null, "dry_up": null, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049034, "annualized_volatility": 0.409741, "from_high_reference": -0.377638, "from_low_reference": 0.050048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.44538, "fair_value_reference": 2.485496, "structural_low": 2.078, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.035206, "positive_rate": 0.393939, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": -0.043883, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.278525, "worst_return": -0.248204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.090404, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.137852, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.785881, "worst_return": -0.356731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.102525, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.07042, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.701156, "worst_return": -0.561359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.037528, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.270448, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.353256, "worst_return": -0.64354, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.401879, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121031, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0588, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002467, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042728, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116297, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062147, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025194, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081331, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026432, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.171385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112205, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.070698, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.41, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 2237.4, "trend": 1.550473, "fair_value": 3.995714, "relative_strength": -25.971602, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging 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2.51418, "fair_value": 2.467111, "relative_strength": -36.224128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.955927, "energy": 44.869268, "activity_lines": [ 2.294564, 2.312888, 2.351292, 2.425934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.128, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 2.496713, "fair_value": 2.471711, "relative_strength": -36.965783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.699915, "energy": 57.769571, "activity_lines": [ 2.241672, 2.276076, 2.324618, 2.401019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.124, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 2.48038, "fair_value": 2.476128, "relative_strength": -37.167875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.471103, "energy": 76.132646, "activity_lines": [ 2.193867, 2.242677, 2.301945, 2.376973 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.176, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 2.46578, "fair_value": 2.480823, "relative_strength": -34.779232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.452583, "energy": 75.162554, "activity_lines": [ 2.1724, 2.222032, 2.286996, 2.357336 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.182, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 2.44538, "fair_value": 2.485496, "relative_strength": -35.613037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.552787, "energy": 75.297169, "activity_lines": [ 2.164267, 2.207818, 2.273437, 2.339027 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }