{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05089803-1799-4c16-b4af-c4a5c056b20f", "symbol": "HTGC", "name": "Hercules Capital, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 69.361, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.153, "architecture_energy": 84.429, "architecture_maturity": 15.511, "architecture_confidence": 60.797, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.74, "rotation_up": 81.81, "upward_expansion": 93.8, "deceleration": 41.85, "rotation_down": 8.77, "downward_expansion": 18.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.472734, 16.050327, 15.736035, 15.474827 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 17.25, "trend_reference": 15.417093, "distance_from_trend": 0.118888, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.56347, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.108365, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.161098, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.109153, "excess_performance": -0.016471, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.118888, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032478, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.108365, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072162, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051611, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097212, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109153, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.094807, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8621632, "relative_activity": 1.061308, "balance": 1.094807, "dry_up": 0.94694, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038418, "annualized_volatility": 0.249054, "from_high_reference": -0.046232, "from_low_reference": 0.291608 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.417093, "fair_value_reference": 15.56347, "structural_low": 13.355443, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.010119, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.015153, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.019937, "worst_return": -0.076064, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.024271, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023085, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133287, "worst_return": -0.084745, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.033146, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.054074, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.037512, "worst_return": 0.028781, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044101, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034498, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043162, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0745, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001081, 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"direction": -2.801214, "energy": 5.993805, "activity_lines": [ 15.433144, 15.380453, 15.245839, 15.246218 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.17, "volume": 6936450, "typical_volume": 9201929.9, "trend": 15.53965, "fair_value": 15.487412, "relative_strength": -8.852588, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.055431, "energy": 41.96543, "activity_lines": [ 15.71109, 15.520007, 15.361689, 15.284025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.73, "volume": 6711980, "typical_volume": 8493713.8, "trend": 15.474977, "fair_value": 15.510721, "relative_strength": -10.343847, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.972203, "energy": 44.016415, "activity_lines": [ 15.773242, 15.571811, 15.424599, 15.296306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.42, "volume": 8500147, "typical_volume": 8220116.85, "trend": 15.427947, "fair_value": 15.533033, "relative_strength": -6.972484, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.649649, "energy": 59.835751, "activity_lines": [ 16.024948, 15.745432, 15.547301, 15.357275 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.25, "volume": 8621632, "typical_volume": 8123589.8, "trend": 15.417093, "fair_value": 15.56347, "relative_strength": -5.161098, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.153147, "energy": 84.429193, "activity_lines": [ 16.472734, 16.050327, 15.736035, 15.474827 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }