{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0511c919-edb5-4add-9268-893272c8c41a", "symbol": "7233", "name": "CSOP Leveraged and Inverse Series II - CSOP CSI 300 Index Daily (2x) Leveraged Product", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.508, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.78, "architecture_energy": 41.269, "architecture_maturity": 6.297, "architecture_confidence": 67.565, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.98, "rotation_up": 14.72, "upward_expansion": 21.01, "deceleration": 53.66, "rotation_down": 64.73, "downward_expansion": 48.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.8368, 4.988764, 5.118162, 5.102019 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.938, "trend_reference": 5.084, "distance_from_trend": -0.028718, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.019769, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.228429, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.315436, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000809, "excess_performance": 0.032772, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028718, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017031, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.228429, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135487, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003154, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151003, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000809, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.587842, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6251900, "relative_activity": 1.432393, "balance": 0.587842, "dry_up": 2.045677, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077951, "annualized_volatility": 0.287372, "from_high_reference": -0.148621, "from_low_reference": 0.253299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.084, "fair_value_reference": 4.019769, "structural_low": 4.43, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018676, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.048999, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.098946, "worst_return": -0.022383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.015093, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017504, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.864926, "worst_return": -0.154689, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.103353, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.161877, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121857, "worst_return": -0.269996, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076271, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037209, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.179003, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040598, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004586, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084064, 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"energy": 26.962018, "activity_lines": [ 5.058, 5.191, 5.197786, 5.151871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.842, "volume": 9054800, "typical_volume": 4006885.0, "trend": 5.1016, "fair_value": 4.017218, "relative_strength": 1.128075, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.838407, "energy": 29.012587, "activity_lines": [ 4.938667, 5.113818, 5.170514, 5.135062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.744, "volume": 10412200, "typical_volume": 4326860.0, "trend": 5.092567, "fair_value": 4.016705, "relative_strength": -4.710663, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.91556, "energy": 41.957714, "activity_lines": [ 4.8352, 5.028327, 5.13449, 5.111991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.938, "volume": 6251900, "typical_volume": 4364655.0, "trend": 5.084, "fair_value": 4.019769, "relative_strength": -0.315436, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.779587, "energy": 41.26863, "activity_lines": [ 4.8368, 4.988764, 5.118162, 5.102019 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }