{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0511ee57-f7cb-417c-b694-04777a2c39f1", "symbol": "SRRK", "name": "Scholar Rock Holding Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.258, "architecture_energy": 20.126, "architecture_maturity": 84.507, "architecture_confidence": 90.969, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.88, "rotation_up": 32.48, "upward_expansion": 62.78, "deceleration": 85.29, "rotation_down": 32.31, "downward_expansion": 17.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.614667, 51.174273, 50.029976, 49.020419 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 52.92, "trend_reference": 47.762167, "distance_from_trend": 0.10799, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.766186, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.83966, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.771299, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.111298, "excess_performance": -0.076156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10799, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063722, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.83966, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079733, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.077713, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050243, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111298, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.682101, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5301248, "relative_activity": 0.766056, "balance": 1.682101, "dry_up": 0.789376, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097484, "annualized_volatility": 0.529988, "from_high_reference": -0.09523, "from_low_reference": 0.954932 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.762167, "fair_value_reference": 28.766186, "structural_low": 38.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.037723, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.044391, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.816824, "worst_return": -0.156304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007931, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04885, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.533101, "worst_return": -0.339378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.040482, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00242, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.329019, "worst_return": -0.392055, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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71.731578, "energy": 62.790437, "activity_lines": [ 51.206, 49.555636, 48.432857, 47.590817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 56.71, "volume": 4724564, "typical_volume": 7325186.75, "trend": 46.889, "fair_value": 27.660321, "relative_strength": 15.884781, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.747164, "energy": 77.42249, "activity_lines": [ 53.746, 51.012182, 49.318524, 48.245591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.86, "volume": 5181786, "typical_volume": 7389447.75, "trend": 47.187667, "fair_value": 27.954038, "relative_strength": 12.602993, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.737198, "energy": 72.060748, "activity_lines": [ 54.175333, 51.580727, 49.796048, 48.630817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.67, "volume": 5198537, "typical_volume": 7111758.0, "trend": 47.254333, "fair_value": 28.214615, "relative_strength": 3.175605, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.005303, "energy": 50.875138, "activity_lines": [ 52.296, 51.124364, 49.738381, 48.661935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.295, "volume": 6168936, "typical_volume": 7139517.05, "trend": 47.404167, "fair_value": 28.472147, "relative_strength": 1.721795, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.061017, "energy": 17.245745, "activity_lines": [ 50.269, 50.630364, 49.633667, 48.664559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.92, "volume": 5301248, "typical_volume": 6920179.1, "trend": 47.762167, "fair_value": 28.766186, "relative_strength": 7.771299, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.258286, "energy": 20.125641, "activity_lines": [ 50.614667, 51.174273, 50.029976, 49.020419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }