{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0515db56-ff16-47e6-95f4-8a737ee4604f", "symbol": "PER", "name": "PERCHERON FPO [PER]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.379, "architecture_energy": 53.499, "architecture_maturity": 98.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.374, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.09, "rotation_up": 16.06, "upward_expansion": 7.99, "deceleration": 47.1, "rotation_down": 69.19, "downward_expansion": 85.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.003033, 0.003355, 0.003812, 0.004318 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.003, "trend_reference": 0.005211, "distance_from_trend": -0.424346, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.03773, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.920487, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.836016, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.625, "excess_performance": -0.688706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.424346, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.219622, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.920487, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026268, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.57836, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126696, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.993086, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7700126, "relative_activity": 0.769039, "balance": 1.993086, "dry_up": 1.084304, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.346154, "annualized_volatility": 0.890405, "from_high_reference": -0.75, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.005211, "fair_value_reference": 0.03773, "structural_low": 0.002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.084746, "positive_rate": 0.297297, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.076466, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.512821, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.018519, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.014247, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.208, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.185688, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.054795, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.001854, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.464865, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04918, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.260274, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08046, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.21, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075, "active": false 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.217627, "energy": 70.35527, "activity_lines": [ 0.003233, 0.003682, 0.004068, 0.004644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.003, "volume": 5795717, "typical_volume": 9896182.9, "trend": 0.005411, "fair_value": 0.038044, "relative_strength": -57.473975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.10426, "energy": 63.083231, "activity_lines": [ 0.0031, 0.003509, 0.003933, 0.004474 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.003, "volume": 7700126, "typical_volume": 10012656.4, "trend": 0.005211, "fair_value": 0.03773, "relative_strength": -57.836016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.378887, "energy": 53.498819, "activity_lines": [ 0.003033, 0.003355, 0.003812, 0.004318 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }