{ "ticker": { "uuid": "051af986-4ba8-46b1-b59b-a4106832f0b6", "symbol": "6004", "name": "CATRION Catering Holding Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.515, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.403, "architecture_energy": 44.101, "architecture_maturity": 12.672, "architecture_confidence": 61.568, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.07, "rotation_up": 6.51, "upward_expansion": 10.92, "deceleration": 52.67, "rotation_down": 67.51, "downward_expansion": 69.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.97, 72.76, 73.090334, 72.808892 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 69.0, "trend_reference": 73.279245, "distance_from_trend": -0.058396, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 102.757405, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.328516, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.99386, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.115115, "excess_performance": -0.083286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058396, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037832, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.328516, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004721, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129939, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101894, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.115115, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.923425, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1342821, "relative_activity": 1.252807, "balance": 0.923425, "dry_up": 0.703663, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049331, "annualized_volatility": 0.19929, "from_high_reference": -0.374437, "from_low_reference": 0.04943 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 73.279245, "fair_value_reference": 102.757405, "structural_low": 65.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.021333, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.003305, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.125944, "worst_return": -0.112416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001294, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.036849, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.180488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013225, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.059684, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188036, "worst_return": -0.276271, "sufficient": true }, { 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75.239999, 75.238181, 73.442496, 73.468811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 73.699997, "volume": 801591, "typical_volume": 1072616.6, "trend": 74.064426, "fair_value": 103.537714, "relative_strength": -8.677265, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.110482, "energy": 7.757902, "activity_lines": [ 74.546665, 75.067271, 73.57909, 73.436844 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 73.050003, "volume": 405467, "typical_volume": 1041572.6, "trend": 73.914977, "fair_value": 103.290515, "relative_strength": -9.275226, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.180768, "energy": 8.228748, "activity_lines": [ 73.923333, 74.702726, 73.660556, 73.371397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.75, "volume": 467006, "typical_volume": 1020906.6, "trend": 73.553855, "fair_value": 103.037768, "relative_strength": -10.828186, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.191064, "energy": 25.312453, "activity_lines": [ 72.393333, 73.764545, 73.411837, 73.102689 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.0, "volume": 1342821, "typical_volume": 1071850.2, "trend": 73.279245, "fair_value": 102.757405, "relative_strength": -12.99386, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.403218, "energy": 44.101434, "activity_lines": [ 70.97, 72.76, 73.090334, 72.808892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }