{ "ticker": { "uuid": "051b034f-9d31-4c7f-9071-846e6a7c4e40", "symbol": "XDRE", "name": "Xtrackers Developed Green Real", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.007, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.206, "architecture_energy": 66.532, "architecture_maturity": 17.802, "architecture_confidence": 62.694, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.95, "rotation_up": 70.21, "upward_expansion": 85.44, "deceleration": 56.5, "rotation_down": 14.86, "downward_expansion": 12.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.860666, 30.575999, 29.842976, 29.288408 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.674999, "trend_reference": 28.600666, "distance_from_trend": 0.072527, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.167882, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129091, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.845166, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.126101, "excess_performance": -0.04479, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072527, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045015, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129091, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059355, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048452, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009941, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126101, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.620513, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.620513, "dry_up": 2.57735, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021052, "annualized_volatility": 0.139139, "from_high_reference": -0.032029, "from_low_reference": 0.21293 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.600666, "fair_value_reference": 27.167882, "structural_low": 26.525, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.011208, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.023439, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.011208, "worst_return": 0.011208, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011208, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 27.48, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 27.775, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-10", "close": 27.07, "volume": 4, 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"typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.334999, "volume": 26, "typical_volume": 150.25, "trend": 27.870167, "fair_value": 26.940437, "relative_strength": -4.90623, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.999493, "energy": 92.442709, "activity_lines": [ 29.906333, 29.43209, 28.831428, 28.437236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.049999, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 137.3, "trend": 27.998833, "fair_value": 26.978827, "relative_strength": -5.252339, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.158562, "energy": 83.998081, "activity_lines": [ 30.032999, 29.605999, 28.985976, 28.577871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.120001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 137.25, "trend": 28.159167, "fair_value": 27.029329, "relative_strength": -0.39255, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.953855, "energy": 94.265974, "activity_lines": [ 30.442, 29.944727, 29.233547, 28.779236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.514999, "volume": 1067, "typical_volume": 190.15, "trend": 28.335166, "fair_value": 27.083373, "relative_strength": 1.093583, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.81576, "energy": 94.298704, "activity_lines": [ 30.884, 30.308454, 29.506143, 28.995742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.674999, "volume": 1582, "typical_volume": 257.05, "trend": 28.4785, "fair_value": 27.126131, "relative_strength": -2.164042, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.596825, "energy": 69.55665, "activity_lines": [ 30.881999, 30.459636, 29.681309, 29.146699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.674999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 256.95, "trend": 28.600666, "fair_value": 27.167882, "relative_strength": -4.845166, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.205623, "energy": 66.532178, "activity_lines": [ 30.860666, 30.575999, 29.842976, 29.288408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }