{ "ticker": { "uuid": "051bc63d-6a16-47b2-ba98-5677e5d96af0", "symbol": "IWSZ", "name": "iShares MSCI World Mid-Cap Equal Weight UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.761, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.107, "architecture_energy": 82.487, "architecture_maturity": 35.924, "architecture_confidence": 64.127, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 74.89, "upward_expansion": 91.58, "deceleration": 47.99, "rotation_down": 18.49, "downward_expansion": 15.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.438001, 52.041455, 51.218667, 50.542818 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 53.490002, "trend_reference": 49.802, "distance_from_trend": 0.074053, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.398237, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.232539, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.918738, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.096556, "excess_performance": -0.074336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074053, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034345, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.232539, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053822, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049187, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010262, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096556, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.51449, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9403, "relative_activity": 1.783929, "balance": 0.51449, "dry_up": 1.409044, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013813, "annualized_volatility": 0.103853, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.194107 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.802, "fair_value_reference": 43.398237, "structural_low": 45.889999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.005582, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.010507, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.058003, "worst_return": -0.076424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.014734, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.021454, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.103885, "worst_return": -0.100053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.031581, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.004555, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.119676, "worst_return": -0.084193, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 89.255509, "activity_lines": [ 51.616, 51.127455, 50.264167, 49.792462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.810001, "volume": 3671, "typical_volume": 5902.8, "trend": 49.316667, "fair_value": 43.105705, "relative_strength": -5.156333, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.056281, "energy": 88.125421, "activity_lines": [ 51.758, 51.325546, 50.473524, 49.963936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.040001, "volume": 894, "typical_volume": 5792.7, "trend": 49.481834, "fair_value": 43.196795, "relative_strength": -4.422852, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.142215, "energy": 88.878113, "activity_lines": [ 51.909334, 51.527091, 50.696548, 50.139635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.880001, "volume": 15740, "typical_volume": 5755.6, "trend": 49.638834, "fair_value": 43.291314, "relative_strength": -5.197928, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.594504, "energy": 66.906276, "activity_lines": [ 51.926001, 51.652728, 50.890119, 50.294355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.490002, "volume": 9403, "typical_volume": 5270.95, "trend": 49.802, "fair_value": 43.398237, "relative_strength": -4.918738, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.106662, "energy": 82.486952, "activity_lines": [ 52.438001, 52.041455, 51.218667, 50.542818 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }