{ "ticker": { "uuid": "051c1ea4-5daf-48d9-b9ab-7b9efe4be7f2", "symbol": "WINN", "name": "HARBOR LONG-TERM GROWERS ETF", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.061, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.193, "architecture_energy": 43.363, "architecture_maturity": 22.189, "architecture_confidence": 74.231, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.38, "rotation_up": 51.93, "upward_expansion": 78.34, "deceleration": 60.46, "rotation_down": 23.78, "downward_expansion": 5.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.870667, 32.624, 32.395317, 31.719642 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.06, "trend_reference": 31.002423, "distance_from_trend": 0.098624, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.486765, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.285925, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.060066, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.151065, "excess_performance": 0.02544, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098624, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01444, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.285925, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001613, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020601, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016903, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.151065, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.571699, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 641328, "relative_activity": 1.128677, "balance": 1.571699, "dry_up": 0.921303, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036808, "annualized_volatility": 0.203589, "from_high_reference": -0.007576, "from_low_reference": 0.279489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.002423, "fair_value_reference": 26.486765, "structural_low": 26.62, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.011149, "positive_rate": 0.791667, "directional_follow_through": 0.791667, "median_excess_return": -0.001832, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.062587, "worst_return": -0.092022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.047645, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.002117, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.174146, "worst_return": -0.033935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.066738, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.000209, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.264761, "worst_return": -0.015308, "sufficient": true 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"relative_strength": -3.062536, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.073236, "energy": 37.662557, "activity_lines": [ 32.49, 32.507062, 31.833559, 31.25799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.42, "volume": 679632, "typical_volume": 596703.35, "trend": 30.860257, "fair_value": 26.215322, "relative_strength": -3.52414, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.787009, "energy": 34.868226, "activity_lines": [ 32.514, 32.484796, 31.973689, 31.361584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.74, "volume": 361998, "typical_volume": 564786.4, "trend": 30.866923, "fair_value": 26.296681, "relative_strength": -4.810906, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.773805, "energy": 29.654665, "activity_lines": [ 32.281333, 32.339985, 32.034152, 31.418342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.39, "volume": 411024, "typical_volume": 562254.15, "trend": 30.912923, "fair_value": 26.385409, "relative_strength": -3.741494, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.658217, "energy": 27.936255, "activity_lines": [ 32.327333, 32.327356, 32.144282, 31.516605 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.06, "volume": 641328, "typical_volume": 568212.2, "trend": 31.002423, "fair_value": 26.486765, "relative_strength": -2.060066, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.193244, "energy": 43.363251, "activity_lines": [ 32.870667, 32.624, 32.395317, 31.719642 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }