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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.717, "architecture_energy": 87.16, "architecture_maturity": 44.85, "architecture_confidence": 89.867, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.49, "rotation_up": 73.95, "upward_expansion": 95.89, "deceleration": 42.79, "rotation_down": 16.62, "downward_expansion": 20.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 252.829677, 248.573075, 240.98674, 232.617142 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 259.0, "trend_reference": 223.155012, "distance_from_trend": 0.160628, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 213.557889, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.212786, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.217544, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.202597, "excess_performance": 0.010272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.160628, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09926, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.212786, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156603, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.052175, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037291, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.202597, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.623448, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20044200, "relative_activity": 1.031139, "balance": 4.623448, "dry_up": 1.184645, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03615, "annualized_volatility": 0.394954, "from_high_reference": -0.018939, "from_low_reference": 0.608382 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 223.155012, "fair_value_reference": 213.557889, "structural_low": 161.031406, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.027397, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.029309, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.134328, "worst_return": -0.089623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.076753, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.02037, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.144441, "worst_return": 0.029851, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.108894, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.051691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.108894, "worst_return": 0.108894, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.158143, "energy": 77.811033, "activity_lines": [ 248.790663, 245.489708, 238.171163, 230.170361 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 259.0, "volume": 20044200, "typical_volume": 19438885.0, "trend": 223.155012, "fair_value": 213.557889, "relative_strength": 5.217544, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.716906, "energy": 87.159995, "activity_lines": [ 252.829677, 248.573075, 240.98674, 232.617142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }