{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0528c2b5-ef33-4857-8b18-502aa07795a8", "symbol": "HDLV", "name": "Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.356, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.681, "architecture_energy": 69.823, "architecture_maturity": 19.129, "architecture_confidence": 66.524, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.34, "rotation_up": 72.24, "upward_expansion": 87.7, "deceleration": 48.98, "rotation_down": 11.12, "downward_expansion": 14.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.317001, 38.993563, 38.317481, 37.983514 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 39.080002, "trend_reference": 37.609026, "distance_from_trend": 0.039112, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.512293, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.166139, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.695025, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.034748, "excess_performance": -0.048135, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039112, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032658, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.166139, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033886, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03695, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038627, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034748, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.989245, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79203, "relative_activity": 2.012576, "balance": 0.989245, "dry_up": 1.534925, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020524, "annualized_volatility": 0.12069, "from_high_reference": -0.033271, "from_low_reference": 0.150279 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.609026, "fair_value_reference": 33.512293, "structural_low": 35.707906, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.005802, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.004767, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.091417, "worst_return": -0.080436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.015701, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.002056, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.109985, "worst_return": -0.079621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0555, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.007637, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.080045, "worst_return": -0.028744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 37056.1, "trend": 37.493296, "fair_value": 33.443506, "relative_strength": -2.116913, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.664788, "energy": 80.21018, "activity_lines": [ 39.358001, 38.881977, 38.180872, 37.881146 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.080002, "volume": 79203, "typical_volume": 39354.05, "trend": 37.609026, "fair_value": 33.512293, "relative_strength": -3.695025, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.680978, "energy": 69.822714, "activity_lines": [ 39.317001, 38.993563, 38.317481, 37.983514 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }