{ "ticker": { "uuid": "052ae9fa-87a1-456f-8dac-7c3d3dc5d347", "symbol": "002872", "name": "Tiansheng Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.839, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.254, "architecture_energy": 18.006, "architecture_maturity": 21.192, "architecture_confidence": 53.09, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.58, "rotation_up": 23.01, "upward_expansion": 15.38, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 34.87, "downward_expansion": 60.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.943333, 4.908909, 5.028524, 5.073118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.19, "trend_reference": 5.097, "distance_from_trend": 0.018246, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.621923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.122909, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.685776, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.059184, "excess_performance": 0.051784, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018246, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011059, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.122909, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082465, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006858, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066781, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059184, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.473878, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11827900, "relative_activity": 0.922722, "balance": 0.473878, "dry_up": 0.861488, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067734, "annualized_volatility": 0.309953, "from_high_reference": -0.106713, "from_low_reference": 0.161074 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.097, "fair_value_reference": 4.621923, "structural_low": 4.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.004055, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.016984, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.179104, "worst_return": -0.191142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.008332, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.079897, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.263852, "worst_return": -0.166302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015842, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.09826, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.07085, "worst_return": -0.170678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006849, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078341, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023109, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096708, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102004, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109127, "active": false }, 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12401000, "typical_volume": 14928004.2, "trend": 5.090667, "fair_value": 4.628013, "relative_strength": -5.098488, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.030449, "energy": 50.133066, "activity_lines": [ 4.838667, 4.954, 5.080952, 5.104065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.64, "volume": 10488150, "typical_volume": 13932130.55, "trend": 5.083, "fair_value": 4.624744, "relative_strength": -8.286996, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.161719, "energy": 41.409615, "activity_lines": [ 4.774667, 4.874909, 5.032952, 5.074989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.95, "volume": 9454801, "typical_volume": 13143193.1, "trend": 5.086, "fair_value": 4.622308, "relative_strength": -0.507178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.464558, "energy": 34.651014, "activity_lines": [ 4.833333, 4.865818, 5.018524, 5.066409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.19, "volume": 11827900, "typical_volume": 12818480.6, "trend": 5.097, "fair_value": 4.621923, "relative_strength": -0.685776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.253982, "energy": 18.006476, "activity_lines": [ 4.943333, 4.908909, 5.028524, 5.073118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }