{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "052ee087-f514-46b5-b1f6-1b338de48f71",
    "symbol": "CMB",
    "name": "Cembre S.p.A.",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 67.47,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 10.871,
    "architecture_energy": 14.972,
    "architecture_maturity": 65.354,
    "architecture_confidence": 89.491,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 63.75,
        "rotation_up": 16.95,
        "upward_expansion": 46.02,
        "deceleration": 87.78,
        "rotation_down": 33.24,
        "downward_expansion": 26.35
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        83.146669,
        85.283638,
        85.441108,
        81.927076
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 80.800003,
    "trend_reference": 77.355012,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.044535,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 49.553945,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.630546,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -1.043684,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.187553,
    "excess_performance": 0.016661,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.044535,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.103765,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.630546,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.234969,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.010437,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.182047,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.187553,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.611824,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 58977,
      "relative_activity": 1.062476,
      "balance": 0.611824,
      "dry_up": 1.215546,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.078621,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.421844,
      "from_high_reference": -0.20179,
      "from_low_reference": 0.599514
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 77.355012,
      "fair_value_reference": 49.553945,
      "structural_low": 58.15139,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.084267,
        "positive_rate": 0.785714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.785714,
        "median_excess_return": 0.067812,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.153704,
        "worst_return": -0.126667,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.101818,
        "positive_rate": 0.888889,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.888889,
        "median_excess_return": 0.143281,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.278928,
        "worst_return": -0.046667,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.20861,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.177374,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.581606,
        "worst_return": -0.057105,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.551212,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.368185,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.649995,
        "worst_return": 0.212444,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.025401,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.068376,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.107427,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.008599,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.01937,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.052375,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.240904,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.17037,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.133556,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "return": 0.037313,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.049853,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 47.786388,
        "relative_strength": 10.183888,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 54710.15,
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        "fair_value": 48.161032,
        "relative_strength": 8.257795,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 46.18437,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 66962,
        "typical_volume": 55615.25,
        "trend": 75.73895,
        "fair_value": 48.539302,
        "relative_strength": 10.987904,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.774413,
        "energy": 30.309115,
        "activity_lines": [
          87.346666,
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          80.705566
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 85.300003,
        "volume": 58675,
        "typical_volume": 56560.4,
        "trend": 76.353473,
        "fair_value": 48.894417,
        "relative_strength": 8.533677,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 37.878853,
        "energy": 23.3632,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 81.800003,
        "volume": 85281,
        "typical_volume": 56104.05,
        "trend": 76.874172,
        "fair_value": 49.228257,
        "relative_strength": 3.187348,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.930351,
        "energy": 20.414507,
        "activity_lines": [
          84.720002,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 80.800003,
        "volume": 58977,
        "typical_volume": 55509.0,
        "trend": 77.355012,
        "fair_value": 49.553945,
        "relative_strength": -1.043684,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 10.870698,
        "energy": 14.972224,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.146669,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}