{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05361bfb-5429-4687-b758-91d99ce76bf8", "symbol": "204480", "name": "Mirae Asset TIGER Synth-China A Leverage", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.857, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.859, "architecture_energy": 52.82, "architecture_maturity": 11.219, "architecture_confidence": 79.725, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.0, "rotation_up": 14.03, "upward_expansion": 22.12, "deceleration": 56.31, "rotation_down": 73.1, "downward_expansion": 49.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 27993.0, 30252.090909, 31406.333333, 31036.344086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26890.0, "trend_reference": 30392.333333, "distance_from_trend": -0.115237, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19923.938439, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.349633, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.36468, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.054833, "excess_performance": -0.284662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115237, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05625, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.349633, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.346086, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223647, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063366, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054833, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.726884, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16651, "relative_activity": 0.594837, "balance": 1.726884, "dry_up": 0.79514, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09875, "annualized_volatility": 0.280929, "from_high_reference": -0.277636, "from_low_reference": 0.441629 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30392.333333, "fair_value_reference": 19923.938439, "structural_low": 25285.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.041077, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026823, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.03325, "worst_return": -0.0879, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.093811, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.079337, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.533866, "worst_return": -0.297076, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.196992, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.102652, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.407915, "worst_return": -0.234249, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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32597.547619, 31486.16838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32605.0, "volume": 15164, "typical_volume": 40863.15, "trend": 30309.13151, "fair_value": 19654.430295, "relative_strength": -22.90972, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.219577, "energy": 44.736093, "activity_lines": [ 34044.333333, 33994.181818, 32727.47619, 31646.642893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29690.0, "volume": 32979, "typical_volume": 36828.5, "trend": 30397.5, "fair_value": 19740.72943, "relative_strength": -22.68017, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.46026, "energy": 13.909878, "activity_lines": [ 32552.333333, 33263.727273, 32556.071429, 31606.698925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28880.0, "volume": 20401, "typical_volume": 32155.4, "trend": 30463.166667, "fair_value": 19813.506911, "relative_strength": -22.923073, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.130413, "energy": 18.935961, "activity_lines": [ 31012.0, 32423.0, 32300.619048, 31508.795699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26705.0, "volume": 19001, "typical_volume": 28807.25, "trend": 30454.833333, "fair_value": 19865.09365, "relative_strength": -27.227339, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.859907, "energy": 43.997558, "activity_lines": [ 29199.333333, 31258.454545, 31837.333333, 31266.333333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26890.0, "volume": 16651, "typical_volume": 27992.55, "trend": 30392.333333, "fair_value": 19923.938439, "relative_strength": -22.36468, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.859299, "energy": 52.820378, "activity_lines": [ 27993.0, 30252.090909, 31406.333333, 31036.344086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }