{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "05416ee8-e755-4a23-a64e-2cb4c4cba105",
    "symbol": "EX45",
    "name": "iShares Dow Jones Eurozone Sustainability Screened UCITS ETF (DE)",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 76.072,
    "architecture_energy": 50.73,
    "architecture_maturity": 60.36,
    "architecture_confidence": 55.9,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 21.63,
        "rotation_up": 48.22,
        "upward_expansion": 78.39,
        "deceleration": 67.84,
        "rotation_down": 27.47,
        "downward_expansion": 7.39
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        23.649666,
        23.594818,
        23.266095,
        22.860409
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 24.15,
    "trend_reference": 22.442333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.076091,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 19.091321,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.264973,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -9.808871,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.094493,
    "excess_performance": -0.079753,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.076091,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.033376,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.264973,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.044585,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.098089,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.001994,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.094493,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.069284,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 1.069284,
      "dry_up": 2.116241,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.024128,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.187724,
      "from_high_reference": 0.0,
      "from_low_reference": 0.227384
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 22.442333,
      "fair_value_reference": 19.091321,
      "structural_low": 19.676001,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 36,
        "median_return": 0.00426,
        "positive_rate": 0.555556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006911,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.100163,
        "worst_return": -0.053643,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.025466,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.029743,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.123203,
        "worst_return": -0.103716,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.072876,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
        "median_excess_return": -0.079316,
        "regime_survival": 0.714286,
        "best_return": 0.142033,
        "worst_return": -0.03998,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.12822,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.016689,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.152776,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2024-08-30",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-01-10",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-05-09",
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      {
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -11.321095,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 18.882269,
        "relative_strength": -11.572323,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 23.17,
        "volume": 10899,
        "typical_volume": 2594.65,
        "trend": 22.255167,
        "fair_value": 18.931821,
        "relative_strength": -10.553556,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.852037,
        "energy": 49.178041,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.482666,
          23.407455,
          22.926691,
          22.595871
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 23.334999,
        "volume": 5124,
        "typical_volume": 2362.75,
        "trend": 22.313167,
        "fair_value": 18.98066,
        "relative_strength": -10.840953,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.621317,
        "energy": 40.655266,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.403666,
          23.424545,
          23.018643,
          22.665538
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 23.555,
        "volume": 3843,
        "typical_volume": 2554.9,
        "trend": 22.371333,
        "fair_value": 19.03391,
        "relative_strength": -9.692894,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.884225,
        "energy": 34.106957,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.432666,
          23.461273,
          23.120428,
          22.745656
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 24.15,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2346.85,
        "trend": 22.442333,
        "fair_value": 19.091321,
        "relative_strength": -9.808871,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.071682,
        "energy": 50.730259,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.649666,
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          23.266095,
          22.860409
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}