{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0558ac3b-d065-46f9-8905-abedc235a27d", "symbol": "BMA", "name": "Byggma ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.875, "architecture_energy": 44.228, "architecture_maturity": 31.357, "architecture_confidence": 74.337, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.47, "rotation_up": 49.66, "upward_expansion": 73.69, "deceleration": 64.62, "rotation_down": 24.07, "downward_expansion": 7.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.4, 21.856364, 21.463334, 20.423656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.0, "trend_reference": 18.836667, "distance_from_trend": 0.327199, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.971154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.391118, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 29.265698, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.736111, "excess_performance": 0.611117, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.327199, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151855, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.391118, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.205433, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.292657, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165579, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.736111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.829001, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 145255, "relative_activity": 3.076742, "balance": 1.829001, "dry_up": 2.102645, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085846, "annualized_volatility": 0.415144, "from_high_reference": -0.038462, "from_low_reference": 1.066116 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.836667, "fair_value_reference": 17.971154, "structural_low": 12.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.005243, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.047619, "worst_return": -0.162162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.139235, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.1297, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.013605, "worst_return": -0.264865, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.134712, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.233336, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.07483, "worst_return": -0.194595, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.044712, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.090993, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.044712, "worst_return": -0.044712, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012887, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037838, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.077333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017045, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.086207, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010811, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.162162, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071856, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044118, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053691, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.158824, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.28866, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 23.200001, "volume": 16288, "typical_volume": 15734.25, "trend": 25.89, "fair_value": 25.267571, "relative_strength": -15.984476, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.795232, "energy": 56.281997, 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"fair_value": 18.013462, "relative_strength": 15.490743, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.439928, "energy": 34.262816, "activity_lines": [ 21.506667, 21.509091, 20.731429, 19.486667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.700001, "volume": 42854, "typical_volume": 34639.35, "trend": 18.036667, "fair_value": 17.987179, "relative_strength": 5.253252, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.525441, "energy": 21.84311, "activity_lines": [ 20.886667, 21.185455, 20.745238, 19.606022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.4, "volume": 59831, "typical_volume": 35372.0, "trend": 18.206667, "fair_value": 17.960256, "relative_strength": 1.461648, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.343919, "energy": 18.552288, "activity_lines": [ 20.266667, 20.841819, 20.714762, 19.693979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.0, "volume": 149129, "typical_volume": 40574.35, "trend": 18.483333, "fair_value": 17.958333, "relative_strength": 19.691296, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.309544, "energy": 25.119806, "activity_lines": [ 21.046667, 21.185455, 21.009524, 20.003226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.0, "volume": 145255, "typical_volume": 47210.65, "trend": 18.836667, "fair_value": 17.971154, "relative_strength": 29.265698, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.87489, "energy": 44.227853, "activity_lines": [ 22.4, 21.856364, 21.463334, 20.423656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }