{ "ticker": { "uuid": "055ba3ef-f369-4d3b-951b-2ac592603c8f", "symbol": "QQ3S", "name": "Leverage Shares -5x Short Nasdaq 100 ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.491, "architecture_energy": 58.867, "architecture_maturity": 87.728, "architecture_confidence": 91.24, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.14, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 27.0, "deceleration": 45.01, "rotation_down": 45.75, "downward_expansion": 65.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.506, 33.084027, 38.740363, 51.369368 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 27.61, "trend_reference": 66.129942, "distance_from_trend": -0.582489, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 679.138047, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.959346, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -71.783604, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.679499, "excess_performance": -0.745778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.582489, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250958, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.959346, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018387, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.717836, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048397, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.679499, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.019349, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75342, "relative_activity": 0.170553, "balance": 0.019349, "dry_up": 0.111092, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.25995, "annualized_volatility": 1.012342, "from_high_reference": -0.848152, "from_low_reference": 0.036411 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.129942, "fair_value_reference": 679.138047, "structural_low": 26.639999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.081561, "positive_rate": 0.228571, "directional_follow_through": 0.771429, "median_excess_return": -0.082783, "regime_survival": 0.914286, "best_return": 0.584746, "worst_return": -0.387205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.249694, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.268084, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.395383, "worst_return": -0.638831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.483673, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.526237, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.267288, "worst_return": -0.664521, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 36.97, "volume": 53435, "typical_volume": 436152.45, "trend": 70.115175, "fair_value": 702.004197, "relative_strength": -64.142789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.207972, "energy": 76.524396, "activity_lines": [ 34.114334, 33.326136, 43.42682, 56.069399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.064999, "volume": 53003, "typical_volume": 438385.45, "trend": 68.410308, "fair_value": 690.94404, "relative_strength": -62.415572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.973626, "energy": 60.573371, "activity_lines": [ 35.881667, 34.157986, 41.439405, 54.001646 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.61, "volume": 75342, "typical_volume": 441751.8, "trend": 66.129942, "fair_value": 679.138047, "relative_strength": -71.783604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.490874, "energy": 58.867262, "activity_lines": [ 33.506, 33.084027, 38.740363, 51.369368 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }