{ "ticker": { "uuid": "055c3f2b-1d82-465b-a971-f87e111c59ab", "symbol": "SDHC", "name": "Smith Douglas Homes Corp.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 7.711, "architecture_energy": 10.615, "architecture_maturity": 25.196, "architecture_confidence": 56.681, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.95, "rotation_up": 37.79, "upward_expansion": 30.32, "deceleration": 42.36, "rotation_down": 27.96, "downward_expansion": 25.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.714, 14.795091, 14.130238, 14.09714 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.86, "trend_reference": 14.703667, "distance_from_trend": -0.057378, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.600889, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.38675, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.023223, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.225698, "excess_performance": -0.351323, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057378, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088955, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.38675, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060833, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.250232, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099953, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.225698, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.582786, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 188636, "relative_activity": 0.430436, "balance": 2.582786, "dry_up": 0.508247, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118208, "annualized_volatility": 0.514115, "from_high_reference": -0.409962, "from_low_reference": 0.29291 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.703667, "fair_value_reference": 22.600889, "structural_low": 10.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.041874, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025609, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.041874, "worst_return": 0.041874, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.434696, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.390289, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.434696, "worst_return": -0.434696, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.314556, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.417596, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.314556, "worst_return": -0.314556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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15.306667, 14.436364, 13.824048, 14.156258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.26, "volume": 209003, "typical_volume": 573445.85, "trend": 14.952, "fair_value": 22.725038, "relative_strength": -15.183986, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.577054, "energy": 44.370571, "activity_lines": [ 15.384667, 14.735455, 13.991714, 14.171118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.83, "volume": 191123, "typical_volume": 509800.6, "trend": 14.884667, "fair_value": 22.666119, "relative_strength": -17.704258, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.854138, "energy": 27.456465, "activity_lines": [ 15.218667, 14.882, 14.112429, 14.163247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.86, "volume": 188636, "typical_volume": 438244.4, "trend": 14.703667, "fair_value": 22.600889, "relative_strength": -25.023223, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.710774, "energy": 10.61479, "activity_lines": [ 14.714, 14.795091, 14.130238, 14.09714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }