{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05631d12-52b9-4cde-8dce-9af9206bad64", "symbol": "MBK", "name": "Metal Bank Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.458, "architecture_energy": 60.725, "architecture_maturity": 54.534, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 26.82, "upward_expansion": 10.81, "deceleration": 49.51, "rotation_down": 58.06, "downward_expansion": 86.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0116, 0.011964, 0.013495, 0.015639 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.013, "trend_reference": 0.018817, "distance_from_trend": -0.309123, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.019958, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.348639, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.860291, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.518519, "excess_performance": -0.582224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.309123, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124806, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.348639, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059493, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328603, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163096, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.518519, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.180193, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 454625, "relative_activity": 0.245573, "balance": 0.180193, "dry_up": 0.646991, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156805, "annualized_volatility": 0.73204, "from_high_reference": -0.59375, "from_low_reference": 0.3 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.018817, "fair_value_reference": 0.019958, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.013298, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.523814, "worst_return": -0.352941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.019753, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.477791, "worst_return": -0.428573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.186054, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.21384, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.7, "worst_return": -0.428573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090909, "active": false 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.289222, "energy": 87.227889, "activity_lines": [ 0.011733, 0.012782, 0.014838, 0.017205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.011, "volume": 541633, "typical_volume": 2480324.65, "trend": 0.019817, "fair_value": 0.020222, "relative_strength": -40.010865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.245335, "energy": 78.097672, "activity_lines": [ 0.011333, 0.012309, 0.014262, 0.016617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.011, "volume": 936403, "typical_volume": 2181553.3, "trend": 0.01935, "fair_value": 0.020077, "relative_strength": -41.291065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.444515, "energy": 70.55073, "activity_lines": [ 0.011067, 0.011927, 0.013748, 0.016048 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.013, "volume": 454625, "typical_volume": 1851283.25, "trend": 0.018817, "fair_value": 0.019958, "relative_strength": -32.860291, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.458382, "energy": 60.725075, "activity_lines": [ 0.0116, 0.011964, 0.013495, 0.015639 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }