{ "ticker": { "uuid": "056f6371-b51c-40b1-aa30-30d8e477c4a4", "symbol": "300926", "name": "Jiangsu Bojun Industrial Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.687, "architecture_energy": 63.254, "architecture_maturity": 92.561, "architecture_confidence": 95.775, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.25, "rotation_up": 27.94, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.64, "rotation_down": 52.12, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.349999, 17.713818, 19.217417, 21.170999 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.66, "trend_reference": 24.025211, "distance_from_trend": -0.264939, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.11364, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.235949, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.64994, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.411053, "excess_performance": -0.418453, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.264939, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153808, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.235949, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268269, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.366499, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03571, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.411053, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.355613, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18155300, "relative_activity": 0.911755, "balance": 0.355613, "dry_up": 1.038021, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093496, "annualized_volatility": 0.457718, "from_high_reference": -0.513918, "from_low_reference": 0.095533 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.025211, "fair_value_reference": 23.11364, "structural_low": 16.120001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.112106, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.068489, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.394143, "worst_return": -0.152856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.18674, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.155153, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.546808, "worst_return": -0.372349, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.771011, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.589237, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.925999, "worst_return": 0.616022, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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19.728673, 21.846978, 23.843858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.09, "volume": 25851728, "typical_volume": 19537041.6, "trend": 25.899969, "fair_value": 23.081482, "relative_strength": -44.337318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.287247, "energy": 71.787608, "activity_lines": [ 18.33, 19.103632, 21.195768, 23.248762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.459999, "volume": 21698746, "typical_volume": 19736067.75, "trend": 25.461322, "fair_value": 23.088088, "relative_strength": -40.455374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.519092, "energy": 71.908063, "activity_lines": [ 17.617333, 18.463159, 20.544787, 22.639732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.139999, "volume": 18518570, "typical_volume": 19490354.7, "trend": 24.965809, "fair_value": 23.095326, "relative_strength": -41.140678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.427341, "energy": 73.515483, "activity_lines": [ 16.980666, 17.891272, 19.9259, 22.038356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.379999, "volume": 24305673, "typical_volume": 19804416.95, "trend": 24.518235, "fair_value": 23.100988, "relative_strength": -31.287781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.092612, "energy": 65.966819, "activity_lines": [ 17.309999, 17.838545, 19.58114, 21.613465 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.66, "volume": 18155300, "typical_volume": 19912482.9, "trend": 24.025211, "fair_value": 23.11364, "relative_strength": -36.64994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.687405, "energy": 63.253789, "activity_lines": [ 17.349999, 17.713818, 19.217417, 21.170999 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }