{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05745c0d-1f01-4857-99d3-03802f350331", "symbol": "300140", "name": "CECEP Environmental Protection Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.825, "architecture_energy": 36.037, "architecture_maturity": 86.081, "architecture_confidence": 87.103, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.65, "rotation_up": 27.75, "upward_expansion": 19.04, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 33.24, "downward_expansion": 66.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.429333, 5.332727, 5.607753, 5.949994 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.5, "trend_reference": 6.384263, "distance_from_trend": -0.138507, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.352856, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.134248, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.794569, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.226442, "excess_performance": -0.233841, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138507, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060714, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.134248, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124369, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167946, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012568, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.226442, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.89667, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60036428, "relative_activity": 0.675669, "balance": 0.89667, "dry_up": 0.786619, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071704, "annualized_volatility": 0.367829, "from_high_reference": -0.349112, "from_low_reference": 0.122449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.384263, "fair_value_reference": 6.352856, "structural_low": 4.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.010738, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.006207, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.354911, "worst_return": -0.125227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.099562, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.054947, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.501039, "worst_return": -0.329149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020701, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.092078, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.13322, "worst_return": -0.056579, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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6.420307, "relative_strength": -18.186119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.463462, "energy": 83.931262, "activity_lines": [ 5.15, 5.336106, 5.786914, 6.142948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.32, "volume": 88756841, "typical_volume": 116633603.05, "trend": 6.46993, "fair_value": 6.397319, "relative_strength": -17.525619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.688565, "energy": 62.763237, "activity_lines": [ 5.210667, 5.28838, 5.701495, 6.066544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.59, "volume": 59083580, "typical_volume": 100786888.65, "trend": 6.426596, "fair_value": 6.373942, "relative_strength": -11.525088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.83593, "energy": 48.164202, "activity_lines": [ 5.356667, 5.312208, 5.653886, 6.009774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.5, "volume": 60036428, "typical_volume": 88854795.05, "trend": 6.384263, "fair_value": 6.352856, "relative_strength": -16.794569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.824584, "energy": 36.03744, "activity_lines": [ 5.429333, 5.332727, 5.607753, 5.949994 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }