{ "ticker": { "uuid": "057b94cb-b632-4bed-873d-baa3978d312a", "symbol": "HEI", "name": "Heidelberg Materials AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.387, "architecture_energy": 71.618, "architecture_maturity": 16.041, "architecture_confidence": 82.155, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.57, "rotation_up": 9.98, "upward_expansion": 15.09, "deceleration": 37.57, "rotation_down": 77.91, "downward_expansion": 93.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 164.810003, 170.24091, 174.971077, 177.128404 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 160.850006, "trend_reference": 183.936114, "distance_from_trend": -0.125512, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 137.462626, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.170136, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.571981, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.238319, "excess_performance": -0.302959, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125512, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065022, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.170136, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232174, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.22572, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140758, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238319, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.69512, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1893371, "relative_activity": 1.230878, "balance": 0.69512, "dry_up": 1.141117, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067974, "annualized_volatility": 0.401844, "from_high_reference": -0.32148, "from_low_reference": 0.02734 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 183.936114, "fair_value_reference": 137.462626, 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189.640383, "fair_value": 135.677785, "relative_strength": -12.430947, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.733687, "energy": 40.560919, "activity_lines": [ 175.693334, 178.272726, 179.088914, 181.877815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 168.300003, "volume": 1353220, "typical_volume": 1662957.15, "trend": 188.005246, "fair_value": 136.309401, "relative_strength": -15.91391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.549339, "energy": 58.161657, "activity_lines": [ 172.446668, 176.396364, 178.181987, 180.501016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 161.0, "volume": 2137940, "typical_volume": 1615331.75, "trend": 186.120239, "fair_value": 136.883799, "relative_strength": -20.887201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.286391, "energy": 69.278388, "activity_lines": [ 167.873335, 173.208182, 176.591189, 178.758742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 160.850006, "volume": 1893371, "typical_volume": 1538227.8, "trend": 183.936114, "fair_value": 137.462626, "relative_strength": -22.571981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.386775, "energy": 71.617818, "activity_lines": [ 164.810003, 170.24091, 174.971077, 177.128404 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }