{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05816db4-ba1f-4322-ba99-87394fa08267", "symbol": "FN", "name": "Fabrinet", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.172, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.654, "architecture_energy": 28.065, "architecture_maturity": 13.527, "architecture_confidence": 58.834, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.98, "rotation_up": 24.52, "upward_expansion": 10.15, "deceleration": 60.03, "rotation_down": 54.5, "downward_expansion": 51.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 493.971333, 503.419636, 559.43519, 567.53286 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 562.38, "trend_reference": 562.789333, "distance_from_trend": -0.000727, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 309.811667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.815232, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.401813, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.115855, "excess_performance": -0.009769, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000727, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044006, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.815232, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.461076, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014018, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.300695, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115855, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.267406, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4187651, "relative_activity": 0.971857, "balance": 0.267406, "dry_up": 0.9235, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171767, "annualized_volatility": 0.635878, "from_high_reference": -0.249049, "from_low_reference": 1.063856 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 562.789333, "fair_value_reference": 309.811667, "structural_low": 403.62, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000524, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.012626, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.402508, "worst_return": -0.139235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.120375, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.021639, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.259276, "worst_return": -0.132839, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.404845, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.258394, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.40841, "worst_return": 0.061721, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 305.007885, "relative_strength": -9.567883, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.725428, "energy": 53.042809, "activity_lines": [ 482.077333, 521.267818, 576.988952, 575.376667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 435.41, "volume": 4623859, "typical_volume": 4264526.0, "trend": 558.951, "fair_value": 306.988654, "relative_strength": -18.338028, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.318469, "energy": 57.618308, "activity_lines": [ 463.883333, 498.360545, 562.007, 567.311634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 562.38, "volume": 4187651, "typical_volume": 4308917.95, "trend": 562.789333, "fair_value": 309.811667, "relative_strength": 1.401813, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.653813, "energy": 28.064704, "activity_lines": [ 493.971333, 503.419636, 559.43519, 567.53286 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }