{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "0581b7c0-dde0-406d-9b10-1d57043465df",
    "symbol": "VEF",
    "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed All Cap ex U.S. Index ETF (CAD-hedged)",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 88.792,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 49.584,
    "architecture_energy": 28.333,
    "architecture_maturity": 62.494,
    "architecture_confidence": 84.249,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.45,
        "rotation_up": 31.41,
        "upward_expansion": 59.07,
        "deceleration": 88.14,
        "rotation_down": 27.4,
        "downward_expansion": 20.41
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        78.169335,
        78.487884,
        77.673092,
        76.378984
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 79.330002,
    "trend_reference": 74.82563,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.060198,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 59.255495,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.338779,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -0.047728,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.094475,
    "excess_performance": -0.025946,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.060198,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053205,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.338779,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000599,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000477,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.022265,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.094475,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.225738,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 44000,
      "relative_activity": 0.595238,
      "balance": 1.225738,
      "dry_up": 1.033212,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.026821,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.172955,
      "from_high_reference": -0.02327,
      "from_low_reference": 0.295107
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 74.82563,
      "fair_value_reference": 59.255495,
      "structural_low": 67.870003,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.038037,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.004925,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.07407,
        "worst_return": -0.002325,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.02049,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.021761,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.149818,
        "worst_return": -0.00386,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.037496,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.029674,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.062381,
        "worst_return": 0.012611,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.112309,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.026119,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.133272,
        "worst_return": 0.091346,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.029553,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.004949,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.028605,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.011836,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.036254,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.002399,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.043718,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.024044,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009904,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.023481,
        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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        "typical_volume": 90085.0,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 76805.0,
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        "relative_strength": 4.158209,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "relative_strength": 2.208085,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 77.230003,
        "volume": 84500,
        "typical_volume": 80525.0,
        "trend": 73.909632,
        "fair_value": 58.660467,
        "relative_strength": 0.334208,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.922344,
        "energy": 46.726373,
        "activity_lines": [
          78.698666,
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          76.899529,
          75.624084
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 77.540001,
        "volume": 115400,
        "typical_volume": 78780.0,
        "trend": 74.235653,
        "fair_value": 58.851057,
        "relative_strength": 0.461819,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.058375,
        "energy": 35.308882,
        "activity_lines": [
          78.134,
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          77.133888,
          75.858301
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 77.510002,
        "volume": 61600,
        "typical_volume": 76155.0,
        "trend": 74.533772,
        "fair_value": 59.048955,
        "relative_strength": 0.832294,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.250174,
        "energy": 23.607873,
        "activity_lines": [
          77.804668,
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          77.334121,
          76.06955
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 79.330002,
        "volume": 44000,
        "typical_volume": 73920.0,
        "trend": 74.82563,
        "fair_value": 59.255495,
        "relative_strength": -0.047728,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.584428,
        "energy": 28.333059,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}