{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0586c315-7155-4fa4-b238-20aecf47f012", "symbol": "WGN", "name": "Wagners Holding Company Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.406, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.571, "architecture_energy": 30.189, "architecture_maturity": 4.244, "architecture_confidence": 47.544, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.04, "rotation_up": 15.57, "upward_expansion": 18.34, "deceleration": 56.01, "rotation_down": 59.2, "downward_expansion": 45.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.149333, 4.266909, 4.372571, 4.33572 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.35, "trend_reference": 4.231333, "distance_from_trend": 0.028045, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.035792, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.13676, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.246144, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.141732, "excess_performance": 0.078027, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028045, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069599, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.13676, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.579896, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.112461, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.390926, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.141732, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.519089, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1362716, "relative_activity": 0.838945, "balance": 0.519089, "dry_up": 0.942542, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092308, "annualized_volatility": 0.415588, "from_high_reference": -0.136905, "from_low_reference": 1.323898 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.231333, "fair_value_reference": 2.035792, "structural_low": 3.64, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.039406, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.058096, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084337, "worst_return": -0.005525, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.014278, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017711, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.144579, "worst_return": -0.116022, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.107236, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.098764, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.012048, "worst_return": -0.22652, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.079271, 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"2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051136, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044445, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033519, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.694216, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.159091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.5528, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.0, "volume": 1304528, "typical_volume": 1597542.3, "trend": 4.2, "fair_value": 1.991929, "relative_strength": 10.30417, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.138108, "energy": 28.176131, "activity_lines": [ 4.166, 4.345273, 4.404238, 4.337333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.04, "volume": 1383560, "typical_volume": 1607062.45, "trend": 4.215, "fair_value": 2.013114, "relative_strength": 7.796139, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.67212, "energy": 34.368848, "activity_lines": [ 4.078667, 4.272364, 4.373095, 4.327011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.35, "volume": 1362716, "typical_volume": 1624320.35, "trend": 4.231333, "fair_value": 2.035792, "relative_strength": 11.246144, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.57071, "energy": 30.188901, "activity_lines": [ 4.149333, 4.266909, 4.372571, 4.33572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }