{ "ticker": { "uuid": "058ac7d6-6ee0-4922-be09-44a667e743ba", "symbol": "MBO", "name": "MobilityOne Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.076, "architecture_energy": 66.015, "architecture_maturity": 15.142, "architecture_confidence": 43.772, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.27, "rotation_up": 19.82, "upward_expansion": 24.31, "deceleration": 43.16, "rotation_down": 70.46, "downward_expansion": 68.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0675, 0.069886, 0.076155, 0.077581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0675, "trend_reference": 0.076208, "distance_from_trend": -0.11427, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.041851, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.612866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 28.067496, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.173913, "excess_performance": 0.122678, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11427, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.316585, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.612866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.592482, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.280675, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.183118, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.173913, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.71176, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.71176, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093664, "annualized_volatility": 0.991059, "from_high_reference": -0.571429, "from_low_reference": 8.642857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.076208, "fair_value_reference": 0.041851, "structural_low": 0.045, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.090217, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.112909, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.347222, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.384581, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.285714, "worst_return": -0.530435, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.486957, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.517982, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.285714, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.583333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.629128, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.071429, "worst_return": -0.707692, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-04-21", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.541667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.6, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.263158, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.208333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.129032, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.045, "volume": 662376, "typical_volume": 452779.85, "trend": 0.06495, "fair_value": 0.115022, "relative_strength": -35.813333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.60111, "energy": 24.841898, "activity_lines": [ 0.047933, 0.047527, 0.049793, 0.055374 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 0.0518, "volume": 224447, "typical_volume": 462826.9, "trend": 0.063427, "fair_value": 0.114488, "relative_strength": -26.485401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.664633, "energy": 17.763092, "activity_lines": [ 0.0495, 0.0483, 0.049614, 0.054526 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 0.0475, "volume": 60847, "typical_volume": 444386.4, "trend": 0.06176, "fair_value": 0.11396, "relative_strength": -33.198209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.472502, "energy": 16.27675, "activity_lines": [ 0.04918, 0.048258, 0.049113, 0.053498 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 0.0475, "volume": 689598, "typical_volume": 468804.3, "trend": 0.060177, "fair_value": 0.113495, "relative_strength": -32.798172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.711521, "energy": 19.031566, "activity_lines": [ 0.048693, 0.048216, 0.048683, 0.052578 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 0.06, "volume": 944916, "typical_volume": 491227.45, "trend": 0.059093, "fair_value": 0.113078, "relative_strength": -17.12848, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.350147, "energy": 6.124476, "activity_lines": [ 0.052073, 0.050402, 0.049534, 0.052567 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 0.0675, "volume": 1224213, "typical_volume": 503877.5, "trend": 0.058343, "fair_value": 0.112742, "relative_strength": -6.070083, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.00038, "energy": 10.214292, "activity_lines": [ 0.057787, 0.053769, 0.051111, 0.053109 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 0.05, "volume": 996684, "typical_volume": 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"gate": "up", "direction": -7.111657, "energy": 32.954636, "activity_lines": [ 0.072833, 0.0765, 0.081988, 0.079253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0675, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5525992.0, "trend": 0.073208, "fair_value": 0.041486, "relative_strength": 39.995024, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.67428, "energy": 53.498892, "activity_lines": [ 0.070167, 0.074386, 0.08053, 0.079013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0675, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4272889.75, "trend": 0.075208, "fair_value": 0.04163, "relative_strength": 35.317333, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.627366, "energy": 61.014145, "activity_lines": [ 0.068417, 0.072636, 0.079036, 0.078645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0675, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3901635.7, "trend": 0.076292, "fair_value": 0.041787, "relative_strength": 30.995169, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.770524, "energy": 65.594951, "activity_lines": [ 0.0675, 0.071159, 0.077577, 0.078148 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0675, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3743843.9, "trend": 0.076208, "fair_value": 0.041851, "relative_strength": 28.067496, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.076172, "energy": 66.014841, "activity_lines": [ 0.0675, 0.069886, 0.076155, 0.077581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }