{ "ticker": { "uuid": "058bc3eb-b1c8-4cd7-af8d-97b6679d4e88", "symbol": "IPGP", "name": "IPG Photonics Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.737, "architecture_energy": 68.301, "architecture_maturity": 17.126, "architecture_confidence": 86.765, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.43, "rotation_up": 10.11, "upward_expansion": 15.29, "deceleration": 37.24, "rotation_down": 75.0, "downward_expansion": 93.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 92.192, 98.617091, 105.212571, 109.015161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 90.23, "trend_reference": 111.267667, "distance_from_trend": -0.189073, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 86.733622, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040312, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.571578, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.176809, "excess_performance": -0.364262, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189073, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080346, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040312, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144154, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195716, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170134, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176809, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.664301, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2767792, "relative_activity": 1.196725, "balance": 0.664301, "dry_up": 0.874651, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.174023, "annualized_volatility": 0.719566, "from_high_reference": -0.420934, "from_low_reference": 0.26408 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 111.267667, "fair_value_reference": 86.733622, "structural_low": 79.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.011817, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.010017, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.224098, "worst_return": -0.233216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.020733, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.114753, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.141436, "worst_return": -0.268401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.161638, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.219075, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.33677, "worst_return": -0.273445, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 87.405417, "relative_strength": -4.384071, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.590785, "energy": 15.985062, "activity_lines": [ 108.798, 110.148364, 113.040524, 113.453849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 104.33, "volume": 1595693, "typical_volume": 2384773.2, "trend": 109.906667, "fair_value": 87.224455, "relative_strength": -3.580649, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.909548, "energy": 28.263882, "activity_lines": [ 106.718, 109.099455, 111.981619, 113.15529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 91.7, "volume": 1728829, "typical_volume": 2344019.9, "trend": 110.457333, "fair_value": 86.974968, "relative_strength": -13.832813, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.858838, "energy": 44.193738, "activity_lines": [ 101.116, 105.757091, 109.849571, 111.980667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 85.06, "volume": 1999275, "typical_volume": 2288367.25, "trend": 110.798, "fair_value": 86.822276, "relative_strength": -20.384274, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.045432, "energy": 64.722046, "activity_lines": [ 95.054667, 101.408545, 107.223238, 110.342129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 90.23, "volume": 2767792, "typical_volume": 2312805.55, "trend": 111.267667, "fair_value": 86.733622, "relative_strength": -19.571578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.737095, "energy": 68.301329, "activity_lines": [ 92.192, 98.617091, 105.212571, 109.015161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }