{ "ticker": { "uuid": "058ffbf5-a3cc-48d9-ac72-545d7d24451b", "symbol": "ITA", "name": "iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.077, "architecture_energy": 36.713, "architecture_maturity": 37.422, "architecture_confidence": 59.662, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.6, "rotation_up": 47.31, "upward_expansion": 70.62, "deceleration": 69.75, "rotation_down": 24.51, "downward_expansion": 10.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 4171.332715, 4161.547718, 4080.303273, 4062.923294 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4279.0, "trend_reference": 4061.252539, "distance_from_trend": 0.053616, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3059.517895, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.398586, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.075585, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.060727, "excess_performance": 0.115394, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053616, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025378, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.398586, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065266, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060756, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146413, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060727, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.410101, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1277, "relative_activity": 1.531542, "balance": 2.410101, "dry_up": 0.64224, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033577, "annualized_volatility": 0.226288, "from_high_reference": -0.030145, "from_low_reference": 0.177731 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4061.252539, "fair_value_reference": 3059.517895, "structural_low": 3706.832815, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001609, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.003782, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.067091, "worst_return": -0.004548, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.033045, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022299, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.069237, "worst_return": -0.003146, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.055768, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002322, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.120206, "worst_return": -0.00867, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4018.0, "volume": 123, "typical_volume": 1289.15, "trend": 4041.548413, "fair_value": 3016.791542, "relative_strength": -0.071009, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.318474, "energy": 33.640561, "activity_lines": [ 4137.105339, 4106.626966, 4031.068415, 4036.177592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4160.990234, "volume": 637, "typical_volume": 803.5, "trend": 4049.966227, "fair_value": 3031.020041, "relative_strength": 3.928308, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.095605, "energy": 30.548392, "activity_lines": [ 4139.867415, 4126.537948, 4044.351336, 4043.883515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4124.0, "volume": 105, "typical_volume": 777.95, "trend": 4057.917204, "fair_value": 3044.772173, "relative_strength": 2.253863, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.682358, "energy": 14.239564, "activity_lines": [ 4127.900065, 4132.476234, 4054.959877, 4048.659888 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4279.0, "volume": 1277, "typical_volume": 833.8, "trend": 4061.252539, "fair_value": 3059.517895, "relative_strength": 6.075585, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.076707, "energy": 36.713349, "activity_lines": [ 4171.332715, 4161.547718, 4080.303273, 4062.923294 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }