{ "ticker": { "uuid": "05942fba-93f3-44ba-a442-8d4055b55eca", "symbol": "002839", "name": "Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.29, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 15.681, "architecture_energy": 28.672, "architecture_maturity": 32.172, "architecture_confidence": 72.03, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.3, "rotation_up": 61.61, "upward_expansion": 40.41, "deceleration": 44.36, "rotation_down": 16.82, "downward_expansion": 17.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.386, 4.283273, 4.273702, 4.303318 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.35, "trend_reference": 4.340677, "distance_from_trend": 0.002148, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.959652, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098581, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.260937, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.02139, "excess_performance": -0.02879, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002148, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017822, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098581, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013524, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032609, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157618, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02139, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.583169, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 163269794, "relative_activity": 1.538277, "balance": 1.583169, "dry_up": 1.557227, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041283, "annualized_volatility": 0.181121, "from_high_reference": -0.087296, "from_low_reference": 0.090226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.340677, "fair_value_reference": 3.959652, "structural_low": 3.99, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.009195, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.02997, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.08377, "worst_return": -0.083845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.051409, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.010113, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.058411, "worst_return": -0.124731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.07813, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.003167, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.144851, "worst_return": -0.078161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039743, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056075, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029345, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046615, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019868, "active": false }, { "regime": 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4.148667, 4.16456, 4.238505, 4.288517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.33, "volume": 157258707, "typical_volume": 103335634.3, "trend": 4.339997, "fair_value": 3.950084, "relative_strength": -0.777713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.695802, "energy": 17.03508, "activity_lines": [ 4.22, 4.190727, 4.241638, 4.287437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.58, "volume": 180648365, "typical_volume": 104767062.25, "trend": 4.343846, "fair_value": 3.955661, "relative_strength": 6.79931, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.679291, "energy": 30.034786, "activity_lines": [ 4.360667, 4.260727, 4.268851, 4.302921 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.35, "volume": 163269794, "typical_volume": 106138116.35, "trend": 4.340677, "fair_value": 3.959652, "relative_strength": -3.260937, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.681393, "energy": 28.671528, "activity_lines": [ 4.386, 4.283273, 4.273702, 4.303318 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }